The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Füchse Berlin v MT Melsungen

Kickoff: 2026-08-27 18:01 UTC

Final: Füchse Berlin 33–31 MT Melsungen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Füchse Berlin (Local)

Prediction 69.18%1.45fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -11.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.06%69.12%68.89%72.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.291.301.3881.97%77.52%76.92%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MT Melsungen (Visit)

Prediction 21.64%4.62fair odd
EV +8.22%
Edge +1.64%
Kelly +2.06%
Growth +0.169%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.29%21.69%21.89%23.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.924.544.405.0025.51%22.01%22.73%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.18%10.89fair odd
EV +10.15%
Edge +0.846%
Kelly +0.923%
Growth +0.094%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.68%9.19%9.22%10.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.559.9010.0012.0011.70%10.10%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Füchse Berlin (Local): 69.18%; MT Melsungen (Visit): 21.64%; Draw: 9.18%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.89. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.15%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.57%EV -12.84%E -10.19%K -49.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV +8.22%E +1.64%K +2.06%G +0.169%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -8.20%E -0.820%K -0.912%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-27 11:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.57%EV -12.84%E -10.19%K -49.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV +8.22%E +1.64%K +2.06%G +0.169%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -8.20%E -0.820%K -0.912%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-27 11:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.57%EV -12.84%E -10.19%K -49.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV +8.22%E +1.64%K +2.06%G +0.169%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -8.20%E -0.820%K -0.912%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-27 11:44
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.57%EV -12.84%E -10.19%K -49.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV +8.22%E +1.64%K +2.06%G +0.169%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -8.20%E -0.820%K -0.912%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-27 11:45
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.57%EV -12.84%E -10.19%K -49.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV +8.22%E +1.64%K +2.06%G +0.169%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -8.20%E -0.820%K -0.912%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-27 11:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.57%EV -12.84%E -10.19%K -49.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV +8.22%E +1.64%K +2.06%G +0.169%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -8.20%E -0.820%K -0.912%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-27 11:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.57%EV -12.84%E -10.19%K -49.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV +8.22%E +1.64%K +2.06%G +0.169%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -8.20%E -0.820%K -0.912%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-27 11:45
Grosvenor🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.57%EV -12.84%E -10.19%K -49.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV +8.22%E +1.64%K +2.06%G +0.169%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -8.20%E -0.820%K -0.912%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-27 11:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.05%EV -15.61%E -12.79%K -70.93%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.70%EV +1.73%E +0.368%K +0.467%G +0.008%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.25%EV -12.79%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-27 11:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.48%EV -10.07%E -7.75%K -33.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -2.60%E -0.578%K -0.743%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.16%EV -8.20%E -0.820%K -0.912%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-27 16:49
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.30%EV -10.76%E -8.34%K -37.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -2.60%E -0.578%K -0.743%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV -12.79%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-27 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.42%EV -8.69%E -6.58%K -27.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -4.76%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV +0.975%E +0.089%K +0.097%G +0.001%7.6%2026-08-27 16:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.86%EV -9.38%E -7.16%K -30.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -4.76%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.34%EV -10.04%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-27 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.02%EV -10.07%E -7.75%K -33.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -4.76%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.29%EV -10.04%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-27 16:49
Betsson🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.02%EV -10.07%E -7.75%K -33.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -4.76%E -1.08%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.29%EV -10.04%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-27 16:50
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.22%EV -10.07%E -7.75%K -33.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -6.28%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -17.38%E -1.93%K -2.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-27 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.22%EV -10.07%E -7.75%K -33.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -6.28%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -17.38%E -1.93%K -2.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-27 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.22%EV -10.07%E -7.75%K -33.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -6.28%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -17.38%E -1.93%K -2.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-27 17:55
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.96%EV -4.54%E -3.29%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.39%EV -8.01%E -1.88%K -2.46%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV +0.975%E +0.089%K +0.097%G +0.001%5.1%2026-08-27 07:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.83%EV -8.69%E -6.58%K -27.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -11.26%E -2.75%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV +10.15%E +0.846%K +0.923%G +0.094%8.5%2026-08-27 16:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 68.74%EV -11.45%E -8.95%K -40.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.00%EV -13.42%E -3.36%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.26%EV -12.79%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-27 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.91%EV -6.61%E -4.90%K -18.89%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.15%EV -14.29%E -3.61%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 8.94%EV -5.91%E -0.577%K -0.639%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-27 17:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.06%EV -8.69%E -6.58%K -27.15%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 22.58%EV -15.15%E -3.87%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.55I 11.70%NM 10.35%EV -21.52%E -2.52%K -2.85%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-27 17:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.27I 78.74%NM 68.41%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.72%8.80I 11.36%NM 9.87%15.1%2026-08-27 16:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.73%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.27%6.6%2026-08-27 15:50