The School of Odds
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Frisch Auf Göppingen v ThSV Eisenach

Kickoff: 2026-03-09 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Frisch Auf Göppingen (Local)

Prediction 52.99%1.89fair odd
EV +1.21%
Edge +0.635%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.58%53.57%52.87%58.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.771.731.9162.11%56.42%57.80%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

ThSV Eisenach (Visit)

Prediction 36.04%2.77fair odd
EV +9.91%
Edge +3.25%
Kelly +4.83%
Growth +0.479%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.25%35.39%36.22%39.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.332.482.503.0542.92%40.30%40.00%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.97%9.11fair odd
EV +5.33%
Edge +0.556%
Kelly +0.620%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 9.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.93%11.05%10.91%12.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.178.009.6014.29%12.24%12.50%10.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frisch Auf Göppingen (Local): 52.99%; ThSV Eisenach (Visit): 36.04%; Draw: 10.97%. For ThSV Eisenach (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.91%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.83%EV -14.15%E -8.74%K -22.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.25%EV +9.91%E +3.25%K +4.83%G +0.479%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.93%EV +5.33%E +0.556%K +0.620%G +0.033%4.9%2026-03-09 17:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.07%EV -11.50%E -6.89%K -17.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.44%EV -0.900%E -0.327%K -0.514%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -12.22%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-09 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.63%EV -9.91%E -5.83%K -14.16%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -4.50%E -1.70%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -1.25%E -0.139%K -0.156%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-09 17:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.61%EV -14.68%E -9.12%K -24.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.44%EV -6.31%E -2.43%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV -1.25%E -0.139%K -0.156%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-09 17:55
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.61%EV -14.68%E -9.12%K -24.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.44%EV -6.31%E -2.43%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV -1.25%E -0.139%K -0.156%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-09 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.03%EV -8.33%E -4.81%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 36.55%EV -9.55%E -3.80%K -6.32%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.42%EV -3.44%E -0.391%K -0.442%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-09 17:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.79%EV -7.27%E -4.15%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.95%EV -9.91%E -3.96%K -6.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -1.25%E -0.139%K -0.156%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-09 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.98%EV -6.74%E -3.83%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.59%EV -9.91%E -3.96%K -6.61%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.43%EV -12.22%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-09 17:20
NordicBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.11%EV -9.38%E -5.49%K -13.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.33%EV -9.91%E -3.96%K -6.61%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.56%EV -5.64%E -0.656%K -0.742%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-09 17:55
Betsson🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.11%EV -9.38%E -5.49%K -13.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.33%EV -9.91%E -3.96%K -6.61%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.56%EV -5.64%E -0.656%K -0.742%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-09 17:55
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.40%EV -8.33%E -4.81%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.91%E -3.96%K -6.61%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%EV -12.22%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-09 17:55
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.57%EV -8.33%E -4.81%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.91%E -3.96%K -6.61%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.74%EV -23.19%E -3.31%K -3.87%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-09 17:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.57%EV -8.33%E -4.81%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.91%E -3.96%K -6.61%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.74%EV -23.19%E -3.31%K -3.87%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-09 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.57%EV -8.33%E -4.81%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.91%E -3.96%K -6.61%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.74%EV -23.19%E -3.31%K -3.87%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-09 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.04%EV -14.15%E -8.74%K -22.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.02%EV -9.91%E -3.96%K -6.61%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.94%EV -12.22%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-09 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.69%EV -9.38%E -5.49%K -13.22%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 36.68%EV -13.15%E -5.46%K -9.33%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.63%EV -16.61%E -2.19%K -2.52%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-09 17:48
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.58%EV +1.21%E +0.635%K +1.33%G +0.016%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -16.03%E -6.88%K -12.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -12.22%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-09 08:40
LeoVegas🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.58%EV +1.21%E +0.635%K +1.33%G +0.016%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -16.03%E -6.88%K -12.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -12.22%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-09 08:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.58%EV +1.21%E +0.635%K +1.33%G +0.016%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -16.03%E -6.88%K -12.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -12.22%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-09 08:40
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.58%EV +1.21%E +0.635%K +1.33%G +0.016%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -16.03%E -6.88%K -12.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -12.22%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-09 08:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.58%EV +1.21%E +0.635%K +1.33%G +0.016%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -16.03%E -6.88%K -12.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -12.22%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-09 08:40
Grosvenor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.58%EV +1.21%E +0.635%K +1.33%G +0.016%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -16.03%E -6.88%K -12.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -12.22%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-09 08:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.58%EV +1.21%E +0.635%K +1.33%G +0.016%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -16.03%E -6.88%K -12.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -12.22%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-09 08:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.58%EV +1.21%E +0.635%K +1.33%G +0.016%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -16.03%E -6.88%K -12.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -12.22%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-09 08:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.58%EV +1.21%E +0.635%K +1.33%G +0.016%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -16.03%E -6.88%K -12.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -12.22%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-09 08:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.61I 62.11%NM 53.89%2.46I 40.65%NM 35.27%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.84%15.3%2026-03-09 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 29.25%2.72I 36.76%NM 20.11%1.08I 92.59%NM 50.64%82.8%2026-03-09 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 29.25%2.72I 36.76%NM 20.11%1.08I 92.59%NM 50.64%82.8%2026-03-09 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 29.25%2.72I 36.76%NM 20.11%1.08I 92.59%NM 50.64%82.8%2026-03-09 17:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%5.4%2026-03-09 17:30