The School of Odds
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Frisch Auf Göppingen v ThSV Eisenach

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 17:00 UTC

Final: Frisch Auf Göppingen 34–26 ThSV Eisenach

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Frisch Auf Göppingen (Local)

Prediction 55.61%1.80fair odd
EV -6.57%
Edge -3.91%
Kelly -9.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.15%55.68%55.57%56.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.641.631.6863.29%61.11%61.35%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

ThSV Eisenach (Visit)

Prediction 33.05%3.03fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.64%32.95%33.16%33.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.772.802.9039.22%36.06%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.34%8.82fair odd
EV +5.42%
Edge +0.583%
Kelly +0.653%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 9.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.14%11.37%11.27%12.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.868.009.3014.29%12.72%12.50%10.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frisch Auf Göppingen (Local): 55.61%; ThSV Eisenach (Visit): 33.05%; Draw: 11.34%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.82. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.42%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.16%EV -6.57%E -3.91%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -7.46%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.14%EV +5.42%E +0.583%K +0.653%G +0.035%6.0%2026-10-23 06:46
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.78%EV -7.13%E -4.27%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -7.46%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%EV -3.65%E -0.429%K -0.486%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-22 09:15
NordicBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.70%EV -7.68%E -4.63%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.46%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.28%EV -7.05%E -0.859%K -0.979%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-22 09:15
Betsson🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.70%EV -7.68%E -4.63%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.46%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.28%EV -7.05%E -0.859%K -0.979%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-22 09:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.52%EV -8.24%E -4.99%K -12.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.31%EV -9.11%E -3.31%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.17%EV -7.05%E -0.859%K -0.979%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-22 17:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.54%EV -7.68%E -4.63%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -7.46%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -9.31%E -1.16%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 09:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.99%EV -9.35%E -5.74%K -14.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -7.46%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -9.31%E -1.16%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-22 09:10
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.99%EV -9.35%E -5.74%K -14.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -7.46%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -9.31%E -1.16%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-22 09:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.99%EV -9.35%E -5.74%K -14.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -7.46%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -9.31%E -1.16%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-22 09:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.99%EV -9.35%E -5.74%K -14.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -7.46%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -9.31%E -1.16%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-22 09:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.99%EV -9.35%E -5.74%K -14.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -7.46%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -9.31%E -1.16%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-22 09:10
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.99%EV -9.35%E -5.74%K -14.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -7.46%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -9.31%E -1.16%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-22 09:10
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.99%EV -9.35%E -5.74%K -14.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -7.46%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -9.31%E -1.16%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-22 09:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.99%EV -9.35%E -5.74%K -14.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -7.46%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -9.31%E -1.16%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-22 09:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.45%EV -8.79%E -5.36%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.19%EV -9.44%E -3.45%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV -9.31%E -1.16%K -1.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 17:14
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.72%EV -9.91%E -6.11%K -15.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.24%EV -7.46%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -14.98%E -2.00%K -2.30%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-22 09:15
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -10.46%E -6.50%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -9.11%E -3.31%K -5.21%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -14.98%E -2.00%K -2.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-22 09:22
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -10.46%E -6.50%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -9.11%E -3.31%K -5.21%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -14.98%E -2.00%K -2.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-22 09:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -10.46%E -6.50%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -9.11%E -3.31%K -5.21%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -14.98%E -2.00%K -2.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-22 09:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 54.42%EV -12.13%E -7.68%K -20.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.72%EV -15.72%E -6.16%K -10.14%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.86%EV -17.82%E -2.46%K -2.85%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-22 09:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.61%EV -8.24%E -4.99%K -12.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.64%EV -4.15%E -1.43%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.74%EV -18.38%E -2.55%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-22 10:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.15%EV -8.24%E -4.99%K -12.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.09%EV -10.76%E -3.99%K -6.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.76%EV -20.65%E -2.95%K -3.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-22 09:15
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.15%EV -8.24%E -4.99%K -12.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.09%EV -10.76%E -3.99%K -6.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.76%EV -20.65%E -2.95%K -3.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-22 09:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 54.91%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.37%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.72%15.3%2026-10-22 09:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-10-23 11:15