The School of Odds
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Frisch Auf Göppingen v HC Erlangen

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 17:01 UTC

Final: Frisch Auf Göppingen 32–30 HC Erlangen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Frisch Auf Göppingen (Local)

Prediction 66.42%1.51fair odd
EV -7.68%
Edge -5.53%
Kelly -19.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.53%66.45%66.42%68.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.361.361.3975.76%73.73%73.53%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HC Erlangen (Visit)

Prediction 24.29%4.12fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -0.705%
Kelly -0.940%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.14%24.22%24.28%25.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.533.853.774.0028.33%26.00%26.49%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.29%10.77fair odd
EV +2.17%
Edge +0.198%
Kelly +0.217%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.45%9.33%9.30%9.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.009.9610.0011.0011.11%10.04%10.00%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frisch Auf Göppingen (Local): 66.42%; HC Erlangen (Visit): 24.29%; Draw: 9.29%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.17%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.32%EV -9.67%E -7.11%K -26.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV +2.17%E +0.198%K +0.217%G +0.005%7.6%2026-08-29 15:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -9.67%E -7.11%K -26.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -2.47%E -0.235%K -0.260%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 08:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -9.67%E -7.11%K -26.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -2.47%E -0.235%K -0.260%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 08:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -9.67%E -7.11%K -26.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -2.47%E -0.235%K -0.260%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 08:15
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -9.67%E -7.11%K -26.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -2.47%E -0.235%K -0.260%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 08:15
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -9.67%E -7.11%K -26.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -2.47%E -0.235%K -0.260%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 08:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -9.67%E -7.11%K -26.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -2.47%E -0.235%K -0.260%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 08:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -9.67%E -7.11%K -26.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -2.47%E -0.235%K -0.260%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 08:15
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -9.67%E -7.11%K -26.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -2.47%E -0.235%K -0.260%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 08:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.07%EV -9.01%E -6.58%K -24.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.68%E -2.02%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -2.47%E -0.235%K -0.260%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 15:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.40%EV -8.35%E -6.05%K -21.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.16%EV -7.11%E -0.711%K -0.791%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 15:45
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.35%EV -9.01%E -6.58%K -24.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.57%EV -10.11%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.11%E -0.711%K -0.791%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 15:45
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.35%EV -9.01%E -6.58%K -24.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.57%EV -10.11%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.11%E -0.711%K -0.791%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 15:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.99%EV -7.68%E -5.53%K -19.69%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.66%EV -9.62%E -2.59%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.36%EV -8.97%E -0.916%K -1.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 06:40
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.10%EV -8.35%E -6.05%K -21.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -2.82%E -0.705%K -0.940%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -11.76%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 16:55
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.41%EV -9.67%E -7.11%K -26.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -11.76%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 09:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.64%EV -12.33%E -9.34%K -38.53%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.10%EV -11.32%E -3.10%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.26%EV -11.76%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-29 15:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.53%EV -10.34%E -7.66%K -29.54%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.06%EV -14.24%E -4.03%K -5.63%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.41%EV -12.69%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-29 16:49
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.56%EV -11.67%E -8.77%K -35.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -16.40%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-28 17:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.56%EV -11.67%E -8.77%K -35.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -16.40%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-28 17:11
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.56%EV -11.67%E -8.77%K -35.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -16.40%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-28 17:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.73%EV -12.33%E -9.34%K -38.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.49%EV -8.89%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.79%EV -16.40%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-29 08:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.33I 75.19%NM 64.98%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.42%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.60%15.7%2026-08-29 15:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.39%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.61%6.5%2026-08-29 06:50