The School of Odds
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Bergischer HC v HSV Hamburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 15:30 UTC

Final: Bergischer HC 26–25 HSV Hamburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bergischer HC (Local)

Prediction 47.74%2.09fair odd
EV -6.91%
Edge -3.54%
Kelly -7.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.76%47.81%47.85%50.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.881.901.9555.56%53.23%52.77%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HSV Hamburg (Visit)

Prediction 40.48%2.47fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.674%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.15%40.46%40.37%41.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.312.302.4346.51%43.30%43.48%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.78%8.49fair odd
EV +0.138%
Edge +0.016%
Kelly +0.018%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.91%11.73%11.78%12.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.928.008.5014.29%12.63%12.50%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bergischer HC (Local): 47.74%; HSV Hamburg (Visit): 40.48%; Draw: 11.78%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.49. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.138%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%EV -13.11%E -7.20%K -15.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.15%EV -1.64%E -0.674%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV +0.138%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 10:59
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%EV -13.11%E -7.20%K -15.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.15%EV -1.64%E -0.674%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV +0.138%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 11:00
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%EV -13.11%E -7.20%K -15.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.15%EV -1.64%E -0.674%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV +0.138%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 11:00
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%EV -13.11%E -7.20%K -15.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.15%EV -1.64%E -0.674%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV +0.138%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%EV -13.11%E -7.20%K -15.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.15%EV -1.64%E -0.674%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV +0.138%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 11:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%EV -13.11%E -7.20%K -15.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.15%EV -1.64%E -0.674%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV +0.138%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 11:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.94%EV -13.11%E -7.20%K -15.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.15%EV -1.64%E -0.674%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV +0.138%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-25 11:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.08%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -10.95%E -4.98%K -9.12%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.20%EV -3.40%E -0.414%K -0.472%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 14:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.81%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.54%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -5.75%E -0.719%K -0.822%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 11:04
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.07%EV -7.86%E -4.07%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.34%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -5.75%E -0.719%K -0.822%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 15:26
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -10.25%E -5.45%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.31%EV -4.88%E -2.08%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -5.75%E -0.719%K -0.822%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 11:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.36%EV -13.11%E -7.20%K -15.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.19%EV -2.85%E -1.19%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -5.75%E -0.719%K -0.822%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 11:00
NordicBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.93%EV -7.86%E -4.07%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.22%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.86%EV -8.11%E -1.04%K -1.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-25 11:05
Betsson🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.93%EV -7.86%E -4.07%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.22%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.86%EV -8.11%E -1.04%K -1.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-25 11:04
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.96%EV -8.81%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.83%EV -6.90%E -3.00%K -5.31%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.21%EV -11.64%E -1.55%K -1.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-25 11:05
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.11%EV -8.81%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.90%EV -10.95%E -4.98%K -9.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -11.64%E -1.55%K -1.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-25 11:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.11%EV -8.81%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.90%EV -10.95%E -4.98%K -9.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -11.64%E -1.55%K -1.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-25 11:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.11%EV -8.81%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.90%EV -10.95%E -4.98%K -9.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -11.64%E -1.55%K -1.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-25 11:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.02%EV -14.07%E -7.81%K -17.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.22%EV -8.92%E -3.97%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -11.64%E -1.55%K -1.79%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-25 11:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.65%EV -11.20%E -6.02%K -13.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.29%EV -10.95%E -4.98%K -9.12%G +0.000%7.35I 13.61%NM 12.06%EV -13.41%E -1.82%K -2.11%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-25 15:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.76%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.50%EV -12.97%E -6.03%K -11.28%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -17.53%E -2.50%K -2.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 15:23
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.76%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.50%EV -12.97%E -6.03%K -11.28%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -17.53%E -2.50%K -2.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 15:23
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 47.56%2.16I 46.30%NM 40.07%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.37%15.5%2026-10-25 11:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%5.2%2026-10-25 11:05