The School of Odds
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Bergischer HC v Füchse Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 13:00 UTC

Final: Bergischer HC 26–37 Füchse Berlin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bergischer HC (Local)

Prediction 15.09%6.63fair odd
EV -0.432%
Edge -0.065%
Kelly -0.077%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.89%15.08%15.15%17.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.136.256.6020.00%16.32%16.00%15.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Füchse Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 77.65%1.29fair odd
EV -7.60%
Edge -6.38%
Kelly -39.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.52%77.85%77.70%80.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.171.171.1987.72%85.57%85.47%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 7.26%13.77fair odd
EV +41.65%
Edge +2.14%
Kelly +2.25%
Growth +0.938%

assuming max odds 19.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.85%7.07%7.15%9.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5012.8813.0019.5010.53%7.76%7.69%5.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bergischer HC (Local): 15.09%; Füchse Berlin (Visit): 77.65%; Draw: 7.26%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.77. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +41.65%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯6.60I 15.15%NM 14.33%EV -0.432%E -0.065%K -0.077%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.82%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.82%G +0.000%19.50I 5.13%NM 4.85%EV +41.65%E +2.14%K +2.25%G +0.938%5.7%2026-09-20 12:34
Unibet (NL)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -1.94%E -0.299%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.14%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.82%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV +1.70%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002%8.0%2026-09-20 07:49
Unibet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -1.94%E -0.299%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.14%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.82%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV +1.70%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002%8.0%2026-09-20 07:49
Grosvenor🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -1.94%E -0.299%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.14%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.82%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV +1.70%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002%8.0%2026-09-20 07:49
Virgin Bet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -1.94%E -0.299%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.14%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.82%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV +1.70%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002%8.0%2026-09-20 07:49
LiveScore Bet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -1.94%E -0.299%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.14%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.82%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV +1.70%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002%8.0%2026-09-20 07:49
Casumo🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -1.94%E -0.299%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.14%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.82%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV +1.70%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002%8.0%2026-09-20 07:49
ATG (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -1.94%E -0.299%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.14%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.82%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV +1.70%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002%8.0%2026-09-20 07:49
Svenska Spel🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -1.94%E -0.299%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.14%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.82%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV +1.70%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002%8.0%2026-09-20 07:49
Tipico (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -1.94%E -0.299%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.28%EV -9.93%E -8.56%K -62.04%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.57%EV +1.70%E +0.121%K +0.131%G +0.002%8.7%2026-09-20 12:54
Winamax (DE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV -5.71%E -0.914%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.01%EV -7.60%E -6.38%K -39.98%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -5.56%E -0.428%K -0.464%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 12:54
Unibet (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -9.48%E -1.58%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.53%EV -7.60%E -6.38%K -39.98%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.10%EV -5.56%E -0.428%K -0.464%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 12:54
Codere (IT)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -9.48%E -1.58%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -8.37%E -7.10%K -46.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -5.56%E -0.428%K -0.464%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 12:54
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -1.94%E -0.299%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.17%EV -11.48%E -10.07%K -82.00%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.94%EV -5.56%E -0.428%K -0.464%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-20 12:44
Marathon Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.64%EV -5.71%E -0.914%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.19%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.82%G +0.000%12.75I 7.84%NM 7.17%EV -7.38%E -0.579%K -0.628%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 12:54
Betclic (FR)🎯5.55I 18.02%NM 15.96%EV -16.27%E -2.93%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 76.34%EV -9.93%E -8.56%K -62.04%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.70%EV -16.46%E -1.43%K -1.57%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 12:52
PMU (FR)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.28%EV -13.25%E -2.31%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 77.08%EV -11.48%E -10.07%K -82.00%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.64%EV -16.46%E -1.43%K -1.57%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-20 07:49
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -9.48%E -1.58%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.84%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.82%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -20.09%E -1.83%K -2.01%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 12:54
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -9.48%E -1.58%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.84%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.82%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -20.09%E -1.83%K -2.01%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 12:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -9.48%E -1.58%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.84%EV -9.15%E -7.82%K -53.82%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -20.09%E -1.83%K -2.01%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 12:54
Winamax (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 15.92%EV -17.03%E -3.10%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 76.12%EV -10.70%E -9.31%K -71.35%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.96%EV -20.09%E -1.83%K -2.01%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-20 12:54
Betsson🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.35%EV -24.57%E -4.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 73.52%EV -8.37%E -7.10%K -46.52%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.13%EV -30.99%E -3.26%K -3.65%G +0.000%15.3%2026-09-20 12:49
NordicBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.35%EV -24.57%E -4.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 73.52%EV -8.37%E -7.10%K -46.52%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.13%EV -30.99%E -3.26%K -3.65%G +0.000%15.3%2026-09-20 12:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎5.30I 18.87%NM 16.36%1.15I 86.96%NM 75.39%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.26%15.3%2026-09-20 12:54

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯6.64I 15.06%NM 14.10%1.09I 91.74%NM 85.90%6.8%2026-09-20 12:55