The School of Odds
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Bergischer HC v Frisch Auf Göppingen

Kickoff: 2026-06-07 13:00 UTC

Final: Bergischer HC 29–28 Frisch Auf Göppingen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bergischer HC (Local)

Prediction 39.54%2.53fair odd
EV -7.08%
Edge -3.01%
Kelly -5.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.01%39.59%39.56%40.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.292.312.3545.45%43.68%43.29%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit)

Prediction 48.86%2.05fair odd
EV -6.18%
Edge -3.22%
Kelly -6.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.17%48.96%48.88%50.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.871.871.9255.56%53.42%53.62%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.60%8.62fair odd
EV +2.05%
Edge +0.232%
Kelly +0.262%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 8.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.43%11.45%11.56%12.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.257.898.008.8013.79%12.67%12.50%11.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bergischer HC (Local): 39.54%; Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit): 48.86%; Draw: 11.60%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.05%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -9.85%E -4.32%K -7.69%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.33%EV -9.12%E -4.90%K -10.60%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.43%EV +2.05%E +0.232%K +0.262%G +0.005%9.0%2026-06-07 08:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.05%EV -7.08%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.15%EV -10.58%E -5.78%K -12.75%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%EV -1.43%E -0.169%K -0.191%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-07 12:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.08%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%EV -7.16%E -3.77%K -7.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-06 21:29
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.03%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.37%EV -6.18%E -3.22%K -6.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-05 16:10
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.03%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.37%EV -6.18%E -3.22%K -6.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-05 16:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.03%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.37%EV -6.18%E -3.22%K -6.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-05 16:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.03%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.37%EV -6.18%E -3.22%K -6.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-05 16:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.03%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.37%EV -6.18%E -3.22%K -6.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-05 16:10
LeoVegas🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.03%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.37%EV -6.18%E -3.22%K -6.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-05 16:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.03%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.37%EV -6.18%E -3.22%K -6.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-05 16:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.03%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.37%EV -6.18%E -3.22%K -6.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-05 16:09
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.03%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.37%EV -6.18%E -3.22%K -6.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-05 16:09
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.31%EV -7.08%E -3.01%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -8.14%E -4.33%K -9.25%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-07 08:29
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.05%E -3.94%K -6.96%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.46%EV -7.16%E -3.77%K -7.96%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.51%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-07 01:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.52%EV -8.26%E -3.56%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.02%EV -8.63%E -4.61%K -9.92%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-06 21:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -13.01%E -5.91%K -10.84%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.53%EV -10.58%E -5.78%K -12.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%12.6%2026-06-06 21:30
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -13.01%E -5.91%K -10.84%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.53%EV -10.58%E -5.78%K -12.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -7.23%E -0.904%K -1.03%G +0.000%12.6%2026-06-06 21:30
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.50%EV -9.05%E -3.94%K -6.96%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.85%EV -9.12%E -4.90%K -10.60%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.65%EV -9.55%E -1.22%K -1.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-06 21:30
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.50%EV -9.05%E -3.94%K -6.96%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.85%EV -9.12%E -4.90%K -10.60%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.65%EV -9.55%E -1.22%K -1.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-06 21:29
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.05%E -3.94%K -6.96%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.03%EV -10.58%E -5.78%K -12.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -13.03%E -1.74%K -2.00%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-06 21:30
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.53%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.61%EV -10.58%E -5.78%K -12.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -13.03%E -1.74%K -2.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-06 20:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.53%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.61%EV -10.58%E -5.78%K -12.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -13.03%E -1.74%K -2.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-06 20:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.53%EV -11.03%E -4.90%K -8.83%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.61%EV -10.58%E -5.78%K -12.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -13.03%E -1.74%K -2.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-06 20:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 39.53%EV -11.43%E -5.10%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.66%EV -11.07%E -6.08%K -13.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.81%EV -13.03%E -1.74%K -2.00%G +0.000%12.9%2026-06-07 12:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.07%EV -13.01%E -5.91%K -10.84%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.17%EV -10.58%E -5.78%K -12.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.75%EV -13.03%E -1.74%K -2.00%G +0.000%13.4%2026-06-05 16:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.59%EV -13.01%E -5.91%K -10.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.39%EV -12.05%E -6.69%K -15.06%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.01%EV -15.93%E -2.20%K -2.55%G +0.000%14.8%2026-06-06 21:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 39.45%1.79I 55.87%NM 48.49%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.06%15.2%2026-06-06 21:29

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%5.5%2026-06-07 11:00