Greater Western Sydney Giants v Geelong Cats

2026-07-11 06:15 — AFL

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis)

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Option 1: Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local)

Odds

2.1746.08%Min

2.3542.58%Mean

2.3542.55%Median

2.6038.46%Max

Consensus probabilities

36.59%2.733Min

41.86%2.389Max

40.33%2.480Mean

40.41%2.474Median

40.39%2.476IQM

40.31%2.481Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.60 under the IQM model: 40.39%

EV +5.02%Edge +1.93%Kelly +3.14%Growth +0.158%

Option 2: Geelong Cats (Visit)

Odds

1.4867.57%Min

1.5664.15%Mean

1.5763.69%Median

1.6261.73%Max

Consensus probabilities

58.14%1.720Min

63.41%1.577Max

59.67%1.676Mean

59.59%1.678Median

59.61%1.678IQM

59.69%1.675Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.62 under the IQM model: 59.61%

EV -3.44%Edge -2.12%Kelly -5.54%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local) ▼	Geelong Cats (Visit)	Margin	Updated
Neds	2.60I 38.46% NM 36.59%EV +5.02% E +1.93% K +3.14% G +0.158%	1.50I 66.67% NM 63.41%EV -10.59% E -7.06% K -21.18% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 04:30
Ladbrokes (AU)	2.60I 38.46% NM 36.59%EV +5.02% E +1.93% K +3.14% G +0.158%	1.50I 66.67% NM 63.41%EV -10.59% E -7.06% K -21.18% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 04:30
Grosvenor	2.38I 42.02% NM 39.75%EV -3.86% E -1.62% K -2.80% G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69% NM 60.25%EV -6.42% E -4.09% K -11.26% G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-05 04:30
Casumo	2.38I 42.02% NM 39.75%EV -3.86% E -1.62% K -2.80% G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69% NM 60.25%EV -6.42% E -4.09% K -11.26% G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-05 04:30
TABtouch	2.38I 42.02% NM 39.75%EV -3.86% E -1.62% K -2.80% G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69% NM 60.25%EV -6.42% E -4.09% K -11.26% G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-05 04:30
Unibet (NL)	2.38I 42.02% NM 39.75%EV -3.86% E -1.62% K -2.80% G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69% NM 60.25%EV -6.42% E -4.09% K -11.26% G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-05 04:30
Bet Right	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.51%EV -5.08% E -2.16% K -3.76% G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50% NM 59.49%EV -4.63% E -2.89% K -7.72% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 04:30
TAB	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.51%EV -5.08% E -2.16% K -3.76% G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50% NM 59.49%EV -4.63% E -2.89% K -7.72% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 04:30
Coolbet	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.51%EV -5.08% E -2.16% K -3.76% G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50% NM 59.49%EV -4.63% E -2.89% K -7.72% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 05:10
DraftKings	2.35I 42.55% NM 39.90%EV -5.08% E -2.16% K -3.76% G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10% NM 60.10%EV -7.01% E -4.50% K -12.52% G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-05 04:30
Unibet	2.33I 42.92% NM 40.26%EV -5.88% E -2.52% K -4.42% G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69% NM 59.74%EV -6.42% E -4.09% K -11.26% G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-05 04:30
PlayUp	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.03%EV -7.09% E -3.08% K -5.46% G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50% NM 58.97%EV -4.63% E -2.89% K -7.72% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-05 04:30
Marathon Bet	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.41%EV -7.09% E -3.08% K -5.46% G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10% NM 59.59%EV -7.01% E -4.50% K -12.52% G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-05 04:30
NordicBet	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.26%EV -7.09% E -3.08% K -5.46% G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52% NM 59.74%EV -7.61% E -4.91% K -13.84% G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-05 04:30
Betsson	2.30I 43.48% NM 40.26%EV -7.09% E -3.08% K -5.46% G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52% NM 59.74%EV -7.61% E -4.91% K -13.84% G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-05 04:30
Paddy Power	2.25I 44.44% NM 41.86%EV -9.11% E -4.05% K -7.29% G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73% NM 58.14%EV -3.44% E -2.12% K -5.54% G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-05 04:30
Unibet (FR)	2.20I 45.45% NM 40.38%EV -11.13% E -5.06% K -9.28% G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11% NM 59.62%EV -11.19% E -7.51% K -22.83% G +0.000%	12.6%	2026-07-05 04:30
NetBet (FR)	2.17I 46.08% NM 40.55%EV -12.35% E -5.69% K -10.55% G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57% NM 59.45%EV -11.78% E -7.96% K -24.55% G +0.000%	13.7%	2026-07-05 04:30

Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local)	Geelong Cats (Visit)	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)	2.30I 43.48%	1.65I 60.61%	4.1%	2026-07-05 04:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)	2.30I 43.48%	1.65I 60.61%	4.1%	2026-07-05 04:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)	2.30I 43.48%	1.65I 60.61%	4.1%	2026-07-05 04:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas	2.30I 43.48%	1.55I 64.52%	80.00I 1.25%	9.2%	2026-07-05 04:30