The School of Odds

Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles

2026-07-04 23:11 — MLB

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (13 in analysis)

Option 1: Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Odds
1.6859.52%Min
1.7656.81%Mean
1.7656.82%Median
1.8254.95%Max
Consensus probabilities
52.63%1.900Min
55.27%1.809Max
54.03%1.851Mean
53.95%1.854Median
54.03%1.851IQM
54.12%1.848Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.82 under the IQM model: 54.03%

EV -1.67%Edge -0.919%Kelly -2.04%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Baltimore Orioles (Visit)

Odds
1.9451.55%Min
2.0748.41%Mean
2.0548.78%Median
2.1945.66%Max
Consensus probabilities
44.73%2.236Min
47.37%2.111Max
45.97%2.175Mean
46.05%2.171Median
45.97%2.175IQM
45.88%2.179Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.19 under the IQM model: 45.97%

EV +0.683%Edge +0.312%Kelly +0.574%Growth +0.004%

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

BookmakerCincinnati Reds (Local)Baltimore Orioles (Visit) ▼MarginUpdated
GTbets1.78I 56.18% NM 55.16%EV -3.83% E -2.15% K -4.92% G +0.000%2.19I 45.66% NM 44.84%EV +0.683% E +0.312% K +0.574% G +0.004%1.8%2026-07-03 18:20
1xBet1.79I 55.87% NM 54.80%EV -3.29% E -1.84% K -4.17% G +0.000%2.17I 46.08% NM 45.20%EV -0.236% E -0.109% K -0.202% G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-03 19:10
LowVig.ag1.78I 56.18% NM 54.94%EV -3.83% E -2.15% K -4.92% G +0.000%2.17I 46.08% NM 45.06%EV -0.236% E -0.109% K -0.202% G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-03 18:15
BetOnline.ag1.78I 56.18% NM 54.94%EV -3.83% E -2.15% K -4.92% G +0.000%2.17I 46.08% NM 45.06%EV -0.236% E -0.109% K -0.202% G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-03 18:15
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47% NM 55.27%EV -6.00% E -3.45% K -8.10% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.73%EV -1.16% E -0.537% K -1.00% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-03 19:05
Fanatics1.77I 56.50% NM 54.26%EV -4.37% E -2.47% K -5.68% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.74%EV -3.45% E -1.64% K -3.14% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-03 18:05
Caesars1.77I 56.50% NM 54.26%EV -4.37% E -2.47% K -5.68% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.74%EV -3.45% E -1.64% K -3.14% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-03 19:49
William Hill1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -6.54% E -3.78% K -8.95% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -3.45% E -1.64% K -3.14% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 19:40
DraftKings1.76I 56.82% NM 54.29%EV -4.91% E -2.79% K -6.47% G +0.000%2.09I 47.85% NM 45.71%EV -3.91% E -1.87% K -3.59% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-03 19:30
Bet Right1.76I 56.82% NM 54.17%EV -4.91% E -2.79% K -6.47% G +0.000%2.08I 48.08% NM 45.83%EV -4.37% E -2.10% K -4.05% G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-03 19:10
Coolbet1.76I 56.82% NM 54.17%EV -4.91% E -2.79% K -6.47% G +0.000%2.08I 48.08% NM 45.83%EV -4.37% E -2.10% K -4.05% G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-03 19:10
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18% NM 53.77%EV -3.83% E -2.15% K -4.92% G +0.000%2.07I 48.31% NM 46.23%EV -4.83% E -2.33% K -4.52% G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-03 19:30
PlayUp1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -4.37% E -2.47% K -5.68% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -5.75% E -2.81% K -5.48% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-03 19:10
Betr (AU)1.76I 56.82% NM 53.81%EV -4.91% E -2.79% K -6.47% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.19%EV -5.75% E -2.81% K -5.48% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-03 18:55
Winamax (DE)1.76I 56.82% NM 53.81%EV -4.91% E -2.79% K -6.47% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.19%EV -5.75% E -2.81% K -5.48% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-03 19:30
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14% NM 53.95%EV -5.45% E -3.12% K -7.27% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -5.75% E -2.81% K -5.48% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-03 19:30
888sport1.75I 57.14% NM 53.95%EV -5.45% E -3.12% K -7.27% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -5.75% E -2.81% K -5.48% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-03 18:55
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14% NM 53.95%EV -5.45% E -3.12% K -7.27% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -5.75% E -2.81% K -5.48% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-03 18:55
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14% NM 53.95%EV -5.45% E -3.12% K -7.27% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -5.75% E -2.81% K -5.48% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-03 18:55
Fliff1.74I 57.47% NM 54.09%EV -6.00% E -3.45% K -8.10% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 45.91%EV -5.75% E -2.81% K -5.48% G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-03 18:05
FanDuel1.82I 54.95% NM 52.85%EV -1.67% E -0.919% K -2.04% G +0.000%2.04I 49.02% NM 47.15%EV -6.21% E -3.05% K -5.97% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-03 17:25
Betclic (FR)1.75I 57.14% NM 53.83%EV -5.45% E -3.12% K -7.27% G +0.000%2.04I 49.02% NM 46.17%EV -6.21% E -3.05% K -5.97% G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-03 19:29
NordicBet1.78I 56.18% NM 53.28%EV -3.83% E -2.15% K -4.92% G +0.000%2.03I 49.26% NM 46.72%EV -6.67% E -3.29% K -6.48% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 19:30
Betsson1.78I 56.18% NM 53.28%EV -3.83% E -2.15% K -4.92% G +0.000%2.03I 49.26% NM 46.72%EV -6.67% E -3.29% K -6.48% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 19:30
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -2.75% E -1.53% K -3.44% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -8.05% E -4.03% K -8.05% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-03 17:30
SportsBet1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -2.75% E -1.53% K -3.44% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -8.05% E -4.03% K -8.05% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-03 17:30
ReBet1.71I 58.48% NM 53.91%EV -7.62% E -4.45% K -10.73% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 46.09%EV -8.05% E -4.03% K -8.05% G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-03 19:29
Unibet (FR)1.70I 58.82% NM 53.55%EV -8.16% E -4.80% K -11.65% G +0.000%1.96I 51.02% NM 46.45%EV -9.89% E -5.05% K -10.30% G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-03 19:30
Winamax (FR)1.68I 59.52% NM 53.59%EV -9.24% E -5.50% K -13.58% G +0.000%1.94I 51.55% NM 46.41%EV -10.81% E -5.57% K -11.50% G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-03 19:30
Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerCincinnati Reds (Local)Baltimore Orioles (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%2.17I 46.08%0.1%2026-07-03 17:45
Polymarket1.85I 54.05%2.13I 46.95%1.0%2026-07-03 17:35
Novig1.74I 57.47%1.96I 51.02%8.5%2026-07-03 19:50
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%1.96I 51.02%9.8%2026-07-03 19:30