The School of OddsToulouse v Lyon
Head to Head
Option 1: Toulouse (Local)
Odds
3.1531.75%Min
3.6227.62%Mean
3.7526.67%Median
3.8226.18%Max
Consensus probabilities
24.53%4.077Min
26.71%3.744Max
25.52%3.919Mean
25.75%3.883Median
25.75%3.883IQM
25.47%3.926Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.82 under the IQM model: 25.75%
EV -1.62%Edge -0.425%Kelly -0.576%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Lyon (Visit)
Odds
1.7656.82%Min
1.8753.45%Mean
1.8753.48%Median
2.0349.26%Max
Consensus probabilities
47.80%2.092Min
50.94%1.963Max
48.97%2.042Mean
48.49%2.062Median
48.49%2.062IQM
49.06%2.038Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 2.03 under the IQM model: 48.49%
EV -1.56%Edge -0.766%Kelly -1.51%Growth +0.000%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
3.3030.30%Min
3.6427.44%Mean
3.7526.67%Median
3.8226.18%Max
Consensus probabilities
24.53%4.077Min
26.03%3.842Max
25.52%3.919Mean
25.75%3.883Median
25.75%3.883IQM
25.47%3.926Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.82 under the IQM model: 25.75%
EV -1.62%Edge -0.425%Kelly -0.576%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Toulouse (Local) ▼ | Lyon (Visit) | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.82I 26.18% NM 25.76%EV -1.62% E -0.425% K -0.576% G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26% NM 48.48%EV -1.56% E -0.766% K -1.51% G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18% NM 25.76%EV -1.62% E -0.425% K -0.576% G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-07-03 14:40 |
| SportsBet | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.80%EV -2.14% E -0.563% K -0.764% G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48% NM 50.40%EV -9.31% E -4.98% K -10.71% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.80%EV -2.14% E -0.563% K -0.764% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-03 13:50 |
| Betr (AU) | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.79%EV -2.14% E -0.563% K -0.764% G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19% NM 50.10%EV -8.83% E -4.70% K -10.03% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 25.12%EV -3.43% E -0.914% K -1.25% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 14:50 |
| FanDuel | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.53%EV -2.14% E -0.563% K -0.764% G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64% NM 50.94%EV -11.25% E -6.15% K -13.56% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.53%EV -2.14% E -0.563% K -0.764% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-03 14:55 |
| betfred_uk | 3.75I 26.67% NM 25.17%EV -3.43% E -0.914% K -1.25% G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63% NM 49.67%EV -7.86% E -4.14% K -8.73% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 25.17%EV -3.43% E -0.914% K -1.25% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 14:54 |
| Sky Bet | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.83%EV -3.43% E -0.914% K -1.25% G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05% NM 50.34%EV -10.28% E -5.56% K -12.10% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.83%EV -3.43% E -0.914% K -1.25% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-03 13:50 |
| Paddy Power | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.70%EV -3.43% E -0.914% K -1.25% G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64% NM 50.61%EV -11.25% E -6.15% K -13.56% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.70%EV -3.43% E -0.914% K -1.25% G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-03 15:05 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.72%EV -4.72% E -1.27% K -1.75% G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02% NM 48.56%EV -4.95% E -2.53% K -5.16% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.72%EV -4.72% E -1.27% K -1.75% G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-03 14:40 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.03%EV -9.87% E -2.82% K -3.95% G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63% NM 47.95%EV -7.86% E -4.14% K -8.73% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.03%EV -9.87% E -2.82% K -3.95% G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-03 13:54 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.45I 28.99% NM 26.45%EV -11.15% E -3.23% K -4.55% G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19% NM 48.54%EV -8.83% E -4.70% K -10.03% G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40% NM 25.00%EV -6.00% E -1.64% K -2.27% G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-03 13:50 |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.40I 29.41% NM 25.85%EV -12.44% E -3.66% K -5.18% G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95% NM 48.30%EV -11.74% E -6.45% K -14.32% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 25.85%EV -12.44% E -3.66% K -5.18% G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-07-03 15:10 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.40I 29.41% NM 25.78%EV -12.44% E -3.66% K -5.18% G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25% NM 48.43%EV -12.22% E -6.75% K -15.09% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 25.78%EV -12.44% E -3.66% K -5.18% G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-03 15:50 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.15I 31.75% NM 26.71%EV -18.88% E -5.99% K -8.78% G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82% NM 47.80%EV -14.65% E -8.32% K -19.28% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 25.49%EV -15.02% E -4.55% K -6.53% G +0.000% | 18.9% | 2026-07-03 13:50 |
Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.