The School of OddsFinland v Portugal
Head to Head
Option 1: Finland (Local)
Odds
3.2530.77%Min
3.8126.21%Mean
4.0025.00%Median
4.4022.73%Max
Consensus probabilities
21.15%4.729Min
29.04%3.444Max
24.42%4.095Mean
23.08%4.333Median
24.42%4.095IQM
24.78%4.035Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 4.40 under the IQM model: 24.42%
EV +7.45%Edge +1.69%Kelly +2.19%Growth +0.163%
Option 2: Portugal (Visit)
Odds
1.1884.75%Min
1.2579.74%Mean
1.2281.97%Median
1.3375.19%Max
Consensus probabilities
70.96%1.409Min
78.85%1.268Max
75.58%1.323Mean
76.92%1.300Median
75.58%1.323IQM
75.22%1.329Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.33 under the IQM model: 75.58%
EV +0.520%Edge +0.391%Kelly +1.58%Growth +0.008%
Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Finland (Local) ▼ | Portugal (Visit) | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet | 4.40I 22.73% NM 21.43%EV +7.45% E +1.69% K +2.19% G +0.163% | 1.20I 83.33% NM 78.57%EV -9.31% E -7.75% K -46.53% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 16:55 |
| FanDuel | 4.40I 22.73% NM 21.15%EV +7.45% E +1.69% K +2.19% G +0.163% | 1.18I 84.75% NM 78.85%EV -10.82% E -9.17% K -60.09% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-04 16:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.37%EV -2.32% E -0.579% K -0.772% G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97% NM 76.63%EV -7.79% E -6.39% K -35.43% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 16:55 |
| Neds | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.37%EV -2.32% E -0.579% K -0.772% G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97% NM 76.63%EV -7.79% E -6.39% K -35.43% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 16:55 |
| Paddy Power | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.37%EV -2.32% E -0.579% K -0.772% G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97% NM 76.63%EV -7.79% E -6.39% K -35.43% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 16:55 |
| Bet Victor | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.08%EV -2.32% E -0.579% K -0.772% G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33% NM 76.92%EV -9.31% E -7.75% K -46.53% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-04 16:55 |
| PlayUp | 3.40I 29.41% NM 28.12%EV -16.97% E -4.99% K -7.07% G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19% NM 71.88%EV +0.520% E +0.391% K +1.58% G +0.008% | 4.6% | 2026-07-04 17:55 |
| Bet Right | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.97%EV -16.97% E -4.99% K -7.07% G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76% NM 72.03%EV -0.236% E -0.179% K -0.737% G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 17:50 |
| Betr (AU) | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.57%EV -19.41% E -5.88% K -8.44% G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76% NM 71.43%EV -0.236% E -0.179% K -0.737% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 17:49 |
| BoyleSports | 3.25I 30.77% NM 29.04%EV -20.63% E -6.35% K -9.17% G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19% NM 70.96%EV +0.520% E +0.391% K +1.58% G +0.008% | 6.0% | 2026-07-04 19:15 |
Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Finland (Local) | Portugal (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.75I 26.67% | 1.25I 80.00% | 6.7% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.75I 26.67% | 1.25I 80.00% | 6.7% | 2026-07-04 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.00I 50.00% | 1.25I 80.00% | 30.0% | 2026-07-04 17:50 |
Arbitrage (8 combinations)+2.13%SportsBet 4.40 (23.2%) / PlayUp 1.33 (76.8%)Show all 8 combinations
| Finland (Local) | Portugal (Visit) | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| SportsBet 4.40 (23.2%) | PlayUp 1.33 (76.8%) | +2.13% |
| SportsBet 4.40 (23.2%) | BoyleSports 1.33 (76.8%) | +2.13% |
| FanDuel 4.40 (23.2%) | PlayUp 1.33 (76.8%) | +2.13% |
| FanDuel 4.40 (23.2%) | BoyleSports 1.33 (76.8%) | +2.13% |
| SportsBet 4.40 (23.1%) | Bet Right 1.32 (76.9%) | +1.54% |
| SportsBet 4.40 (23.1%) | Betr (AU) 1.32 (76.9%) | +1.54% |
| FanDuel 4.40 (23.1%) | Bet Right 1.32 (76.9%) | +1.54% |
| FanDuel 4.40 (23.1%) | Betr (AU) 1.32 (76.9%) | +1.54% |