The School of OddsFinland v Portugal
Head to Head
Option 1: Finland (Local)
Odds
3.6027.78%Min
3.9225.52%Mean
4.0025.00%Median
4.3522.99%Max
Consensus probabilities
21.62%4.625Min
25.93%3.857Max
24.14%4.142Mean
24.14%4.142Median
24.14%4.142IQM
23.93%4.179Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 4.35 under the IQM model: 24.14%
EV +5.01%Edge +1.15%Kelly +1.50%Growth +0.075%
Option 2: Portugal (Visit)
Odds
1.2083.33%Min
1.2480.47%Mean
1.2580.00%Median
1.2878.13%Max
Consensus probabilities
74.07%1.350Min
78.38%1.276Max
75.86%1.318Mean
75.86%1.318Median
75.86%1.318IQM
76.07%1.315Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.28 under the IQM model: 75.86%
EV -2.90%Edge -2.27%Kelly -10.36%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Finland (Local) ▼ | Portugal (Visit) | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet | 4.35I 22.99% NM 21.62%EV +5.01% E +1.15% K +1.50% G +0.075% | 1.20I 83.33% NM 78.38%EV -8.97% E -7.47% K -44.85% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-03 19:55 |
| FanDuel | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.51%EV +1.39% E +0.332% K +0.435% G +0.006% | 1.22I 81.97% NM 77.49%EV -7.45% E -6.11% K -33.87% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 19:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.81%EV -3.44% E -0.859% K -1.15% G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00% NM 76.19%EV -5.18% E -4.14% K -20.71% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-03 19:55 |
| Neds | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.81%EV -3.44% E -0.859% K -1.15% G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00% NM 76.19%EV -5.18% E -4.14% K -20.71% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-03 19:55 |
| Paddy Power | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.37%EV -3.44% E -0.859% K -1.15% G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97% NM 76.63%EV -7.45% E -6.11% K -33.87% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-03 19:55 |
| GTbets | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.37%EV -3.44% E -0.859% K -1.15% G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97% NM 76.63%EV -7.45% E -6.11% K -33.87% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-03 21:19 |
| Bet Victor | 3.90I 25.64% NM 23.83%EV -5.85% E -1.50% K -2.02% G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97% NM 76.17%EV -7.45% E -6.11% K -33.87% G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-03 19:55 |
| Bet Right | 3.80I 26.32% NM 25.05%EV -8.26% E -2.17% K -2.95% G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74% NM 74.95%EV -3.66% E -2.88% K -13.55% G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-03 19:10 |
| TAB | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.75%EV -8.26% E -2.17% K -2.95% G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00% NM 75.25%EV -5.18% E -4.14% K -20.71% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 00:19 |
| PlayUp | 3.75I 26.67% NM 25.45%EV -9.47% E -2.53% K -3.44% G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13% NM 74.55%EV -2.90% E -2.27% K -10.36% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-03 19:10 |
| Betr (AU) | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.93%EV -13.09% E -3.64% K -5.04% G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37% NM 74.07%EV -4.42% E -3.51% K -16.99% G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-03 20:05 |
| Betway | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.77%EV -13.09% E -3.64% K -5.04% G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00% NM 74.23%EV -5.18% E -4.14% K -20.71% G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-03 20:30 |
Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Finland (Local) | Portugal (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 3.55I 28.17% | 1.27I 78.74% | 6.9% | 2026-07-03 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.55I 28.17% | 1.27I 78.74% | 6.9% | 2026-07-03 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.55I 28.17% | 1.27I 78.74% | 6.9% | 2026-07-03 21:55 |