The School of OddsEssex v Middlesex
Head to Head
Option 1: Essex (Local)
Odds
1.4568.97%Min
1.5663.97%Mean
1.6062.50%Median
1.6261.73%Max
Consensus probabilities
58.14%1.720Min
64.20%1.558Max
60.27%1.659Mean
58.57%1.707Median
59.75%1.674IQM
60.57%1.651Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.62 under the IQM model: 59.75%
EV -3.21%Edge -1.98%Kelly -5.17%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Middlesex (Visit)
Odds
2.2544.44%Min
2.3941.87%Mean
2.2544.44%Median
2.6537.74%Max
Consensus probabilities
35.80%2.793Min
41.86%2.389Max
39.73%2.517Mean
41.43%2.414Median
40.25%2.484IQM
39.43%2.536Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 2.65 under the IQM model: 40.25%
EV +6.66%Edge +2.51%Kelly +4.04%Growth +0.269%
Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Essex (Local) | Middlesex (Visit) ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet | 1.48I 67.57% NM 64.16%EV -11.57% E -7.82% K -24.10% G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74% NM 35.84%EV +6.66% E +2.51% K +4.04% G +0.269% | 5.3% | 2026-07-03 23:14 |
| Betsson | 1.48I 67.57% NM 64.16%EV -11.57% E -7.82% K -24.10% G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74% NM 35.84%EV +6.66% E +2.51% K +4.04% G +0.269% | 5.3% | 2026-07-03 23:14 |
| betfred_uk | 1.50I 66.67% NM 63.59%EV -10.38% E -6.92% K -20.75% G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17% NM 36.41%EV +5.46% E +2.08% K +3.37% G +0.184% | 4.8% | 2026-07-03 23:13 |
| 888sport | 1.50I 66.67% NM 63.41%EV -10.38% E -6.92% K -20.75% G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46% NM 36.59%EV +4.65% E +1.79% K +2.91% G +0.135% | 5.1% | 2026-07-03 23:14 |
| William Hill | 1.50I 66.67% NM 63.41%EV -10.38% E -6.92% K -20.75% G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46% NM 36.59%EV +4.65% E +1.79% K +2.91% G +0.135% | 5.1% | 2026-07-03 23:44 |
| TAB | 1.48I 67.57% NM 63.73%EV -11.57% E -7.82% K -24.10% G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46% NM 36.27%EV +4.65% E +1.79% K +2.91% G +0.135% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 23:19 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.45I 68.97% NM 64.20%EV -13.36% E -9.22% K -29.70% G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46% NM 35.80%EV +4.65% E +1.79% K +2.91% G +0.135% | 7.4% | 2026-07-03 23:15 |
| SportsBet | 1.60I 62.50% NM 58.97%EV -4.40% E -2.75% K -7.33% G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48% NM 41.03%EV -7.42% E -3.23% K -5.71% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 21:19 |
| Pinnacle | 1.59I 62.89% NM 58.70%EV -5.00% E -3.14% K -8.47% G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25% NM 41.30%EV -9.03% E -4.00% K -7.17% G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-03 22:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.62I 61.73% NM 58.14%EV -3.21% E -1.98% K -5.17% G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.86%EV -9.44% E -4.19% K -7.55% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 21:20 |
| Neds | 1.62I 61.73% NM 58.14%EV -3.21% E -1.98% K -5.17% G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.86%EV -9.44% E -4.19% K -7.55% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 21:20 |
| Sky Bet | 1.62I 61.73% NM 58.14%EV -3.21% E -1.98% K -5.17% G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.86%EV -9.44% E -4.19% K -7.55% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 21:19 |
| Paddy Power | 1.62I 61.73% NM 58.14%EV -3.21% E -1.98% K -5.17% G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.86%EV -9.44% E -4.19% K -7.55% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 21:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.62I 61.73% NM 58.14%EV -3.21% E -1.98% K -5.17% G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.86%EV -9.44% E -4.19% K -7.55% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 21:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.61I 62.11% NM 58.29%EV -3.80% E -2.36% K -6.23% G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.71%EV -9.44% E -4.19% K -7.55% G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-03 21:20 |
| Coral | 1.61I 62.11% NM 58.29%EV -3.80% E -2.36% K -6.23% G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.71%EV -9.44% E -4.19% K -7.55% G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-03 21:19 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.60I 62.50% NM 58.44%EV -4.40% E -2.75% K -7.33% G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.56%EV -9.44% E -4.19% K -7.55% G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-03 21:19 |
| Betway | 1.60I 62.50% NM 58.44%EV -4.40% E -2.75% K -7.33% G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.56%EV -9.44% E -4.19% K -7.55% G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-03 21:20 |
| Bet Victor | 1.60I 62.50% NM 58.44%EV -4.40% E -2.75% K -7.33% G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.56%EV -9.44% E -4.19% K -7.55% G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-03 21:20 |
Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Essex (Local) | Middlesex (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.60I 62.50% | 2.30I 43.48% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.35I 74.07% | 2.42I 41.32% | 15.4% | 2026-07-03 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.35I 74.07% | 2.42I 41.32% | 15.4% | 2026-07-03 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.30I 76.92% | 2.42I 41.32% | 18.2% | 2026-07-04 01:00 |
Arbitrage (19 combinations)+0.54%Ladbrokes (AU) 1.62 (62.1%) / NordicBet 2.65 (37.9%)Show all 19 combinations
| Essex (Local) | Middlesex (Visit) | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (AU) 1.62 (62.1%) | NordicBet 2.65 (37.9%) | +0.539% |
| Ladbrokes (AU) 1.62 (62.1%) | Betsson 2.65 (37.9%) | +0.539% |
| Neds 1.62 (62.1%) | NordicBet 2.65 (37.9%) | +0.539% |
| Neds 1.62 (62.1%) | Betsson 2.65 (37.9%) | +0.539% |
| Sky Bet 1.62 (62.1%) | NordicBet 2.65 (37.9%) | +0.539% |
| Sky Bet 1.62 (62.1%) | Betsson 2.65 (37.9%) | +0.539% |
| Paddy Power 1.62 (62.1%) | NordicBet 2.65 (37.9%) | +0.539% |
| Paddy Power 1.62 (62.1%) | Betsson 2.65 (37.9%) | +0.539% |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 1.62 (62.1%) | NordicBet 2.65 (37.9%) | +0.539% |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 1.62 (62.1%) | Betsson 2.65 (37.9%) | +0.539% |
| Ladbrokes (UK) 1.61 (62.2%) | NordicBet 2.65 (37.8%) | +0.153% |
| Ladbrokes (UK) 1.61 (62.2%) | Betsson 2.65 (37.8%) | +0.153% |
| Coral 1.61 (62.2%) | NordicBet 2.65 (37.8%) | +0.153% |
| Coral 1.61 (62.2%) | Betsson 2.65 (37.8%) | +0.153% |
| Ladbrokes (AU) 1.62 (61.8%) | betfred_uk 2.62 (38.2%) | +0.104% |
| Neds 1.62 (61.8%) | betfred_uk 2.62 (38.2%) | +0.104% |
| Sky Bet 1.62 (61.8%) | betfred_uk 2.62 (38.2%) | +0.104% |
| Paddy Power 1.62 (61.8%) | betfred_uk 2.62 (38.2%) | +0.104% |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 1.62 (61.8%) | betfred_uk 2.62 (38.2%) | +0.104% |