Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates

2026-07-04 15:06 — MLB

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (14 in analysis)

Option 1: Washington Nationals (Local)

Odds

2.2544.44%Min

2.3542.48%Mean

2.3542.55%Median

2.4241.32%Max

Consensus probabilities

39.49%2.532Min

41.33%2.420Max

40.42%2.474Mean

40.51%2.469Median

40.45%2.472IQM

40.46%2.472Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.42 under the IQM model: 40.45%

EV -2.11%Edge -0.871%Kelly -1.48%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)

Odds

1.5464.94%Min

1.6062.41%Mean

1.6062.50%Median

1.6759.88%Max

Consensus probabilities

58.67%1.704Min

60.51%1.653Max

59.58%1.678Mean

59.49%1.681Median

59.55%1.679IQM

59.54%1.679Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.67 under the IQM model: 59.55%

EV -0.554%Edge -0.332%Kelly -0.827%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Washington Nationals (Local) ▼	Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)	Margin	Updated
FanDuel	2.42I 41.32% NM 39.80%EV -2.11% E -0.871% K -1.48% G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50% NM 60.20%EV -4.72% E -2.95% K -7.87% G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-07-03 17:35
MyBookie.ag	2.40I 41.67% NM 40.00%EV -2.92% E -1.22% K -2.08% G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50% NM 60.00%EV -4.72% E -2.95% K -7.87% G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-03 19:25
Betway	2.40I 41.67% NM 39.85%EV -2.92% E -1.22% K -2.08% G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89% NM 60.15%EV -5.32% E -3.34% K -9.01% G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-03 19:20
GTbets	2.39I 41.84% NM 40.99%EV -3.32% E -1.39% K -2.39% G +0.000%	1.66I 60.24% NM 59.01%EV -1.15% E -0.693% K -1.74% G +0.000%	2.1%	2026-07-03 18:20
DraftKings	2.39I 41.84% NM 40.10%EV -3.32% E -1.39% K -2.39% G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50% NM 59.90%EV -4.72% E -2.95% K -7.87% G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-03 19:20
SportsBet	2.39I 41.84% NM 39.49%EV -3.32% E -1.39% K -2.39% G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10% NM 60.51%EV -7.10% E -4.55% K -12.69% G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-03 17:35
1xBet	2.38I 42.02% NM 41.23%EV -3.73% E -1.57% K -2.70% G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88% NM 58.77%EV -0.554% E -0.332% K -0.827% G +0.000%	1.9%	2026-07-03 19:15
LowVig.ag	2.38I 42.02% NM 41.09%EV -3.73% E -1.57% K -2.70% G +0.000%	1.66I 60.24% NM 58.91%EV -1.15% E -0.693% K -1.74% G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-07-03 17:54
BetOnline.ag	2.38I 42.02% NM 41.09%EV -3.73% E -1.57% K -2.70% G +0.000%	1.66I 60.24% NM 58.91%EV -1.15% E -0.693% K -1.74% G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-07-03 17:55
Unibet (UK)	2.38I 42.02% NM 40.20%EV -3.73% E -1.57% K -2.70% G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50% NM 59.80%EV -4.72% E -2.95% K -7.87% G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-07-03 19:20
Paddy Power	2.38I 42.02% NM 39.75%EV -3.73% E -1.57% K -2.70% G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69% NM 60.25%EV -6.51% E -4.15% K -11.42% G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-03 17:30
Bet Victor	2.38I 42.02% NM 39.75%EV -3.73% E -1.57% K -2.70% G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69% NM 60.25%EV -6.51% E -4.15% K -11.42% G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-03 19:19
PointsBet (AU)	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.95%EV -4.94% E -2.10% K -3.66% G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35% NM 59.05%EV -2.94% E -1.80% K -4.66% G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-07-03 17:55
Caesars	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.81%EV -4.94% E -2.10% K -3.66% G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73% NM 59.19%EV -3.53% E -2.18% K -5.70% G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-03 18:55
Fanatics	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.66%EV -4.94% E -2.10% K -3.66% G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11% NM 59.34%EV -4.13% E -2.56% K -6.77% G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-03 17:55
888sport (SE)	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.51%EV -4.94% E -2.10% K -3.66% G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50% NM 59.49%EV -4.72% E -2.95% K -7.87% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-03 19:10
888sport	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.51%EV -4.94% E -2.10% K -3.66% G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50% NM 59.49%EV -4.72% E -2.95% K -7.87% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-03 19:10
PlayUp	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.51%EV -4.94% E -2.10% K -3.66% G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50% NM 59.49%EV -4.72% E -2.95% K -7.87% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-03 19:25
Mr Green (SE)	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.51%EV -4.94% E -2.10% K -3.66% G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50% NM 59.49%EV -4.72% E -2.95% K -7.87% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-03 19:10
Coolbet	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.51%EV -4.94% E -2.10% K -3.66% G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50% NM 59.49%EV -4.72% E -2.95% K -7.87% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-03 19:10
Betr (AU)	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.36%EV -4.94% E -2.10% K -3.66% G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89% NM 59.64%EV -5.32% E -3.34% K -9.01% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-03 19:05
Betclic (FR)	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.20%EV -4.94% E -2.10% K -3.66% G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29% NM 59.80%EV -5.91% E -3.74% K -10.20% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-03 19:19
Winamax (DE)	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.20%EV -4.94% E -2.10% K -3.66% G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29% NM 59.80%EV -5.91% E -3.74% K -10.20% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-03 19:20
ReBet	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.05%EV -4.94% E -2.10% K -3.66% G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69% NM 59.95%EV -6.51% E -4.15% K -11.42% G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-03 19:20
Bet Right	2.34I 42.74% NM 40.76%EV -5.34% E -2.28% K -3.99% G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11% NM 59.24%EV -4.13% E -2.56% K -6.77% G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-03 19:10
Betsson	2.33I 42.92% NM 40.86%EV -5.75% E -2.47% K -4.32% G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11% NM 59.14%EV -4.13% E -2.56% K -6.77% G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-03 19:25
NordicBet	2.33I 42.92% NM 40.86%EV -5.75% E -2.47% K -4.32% G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11% NM 59.14%EV -4.13% E -2.56% K -6.77% G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-03 19:25
Fliff	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -6.96% E -3.03% K -5.35% G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -3.53% E -2.18% K -5.70% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-03 17:45
William Hill	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -6.96% E -3.03% K -5.35% G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -3.53% E -2.18% K -5.70% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-03 19:40
Unibet (FR)	2.25I 44.44% NM 40.63%EV -8.98% E -3.99% K -7.19% G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94% NM 59.37%EV -8.30% E -5.39% K -15.36% G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-07-03 19:20
Winamax (FR)	2.25I 44.44% NM 40.63%EV -8.98% E -3.99% K -7.19% G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94% NM 59.37%EV -8.30% E -5.39% K -15.36% G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-07-03 19:20

Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Washington Nationals (Local)	Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi	2.44I 40.98%	1.67I 59.88%	0.9%	2026-07-03 18:30
Polymarket	2.38I 42.02%	1.69I 59.17%	1.2%	2026-07-03 17:35
Novig	2.38I 42.02%	1.67I 59.88%	1.9%	2026-07-03 19:53
Smarkets	2.24I 44.64%	1.53I 65.36%	10.0%	2026-07-03 19:20