The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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England v Pakistan

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 89.65%1.12fair odd
EV -7.66%
Edge -7.44%
Kelly -255.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.65%89.65%89.65%95.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.011.011.0399.01%98.56%99.01%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 6.04%16.57fair odd
EV +87.13%
Edge +2.81%
Kelly +2.90%
Growth +2.53%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.15%6.04%6.04%6.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0024.7726.0031.006.67%4.04%3.85%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.31%23.19fair odd
EV +292.38%
Edge +3.21%
Kelly +3.25%
Growth +9.50%

assuming max odds 91.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.07%4.31%4.31%4.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0051.9241.0091.004.76%1.93%2.44%1.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 89.65%; Pakistan (Visit): 6.04%; Draw: 4.31%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.19. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 91.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +292.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.78%EV -8.56%E -8.39%K -427.77%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 3.15%EV +87.13%E +2.81%K +2.90%G +2.53%91.00I 1.10%NM 1.07%EV +292.38%E +3.21%K +3.25%G +9.50%2.4%2026-08-30 09:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.78%EV -8.56%E -8.39%K -427.77%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 3.15%EV +87.13%E +2.81%K +2.90%G +2.53%91.00I 1.10%NM 1.07%EV +292.38%E +3.21%K +3.25%G +9.50%2.4%2026-08-30 09:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.12%EV -9.45%E -9.36%K -945.18%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +56.95%E +2.19%K +2.28%G +1.30%81.00I 1.23%NM 1.19%EV +249.26%E +3.08%K +3.12%G +7.77%4.1%2026-08-30 09:55
Neds🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.12%EV -9.45%E -9.36%K -945.18%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +56.95%E +2.19%K +2.28%G +1.30%81.00I 1.23%NM 1.19%EV +249.26%E +3.08%K +3.12%G +7.77%4.1%2026-08-30 09:55
TAB🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.10%EV -7.66%E -7.44%K -255.29%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.57%EV +26.77%E +1.27%K +1.34%G +0.358%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.34%EV +76.78%E +1.87%K +1.92%G +1.47%4.3%2026-08-30 00:13
Unibet (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.03%EV -9.45%E -9.36%K -945.18%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.65%EV +56.95%E +2.19%K +2.28%G +1.30%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.32%EV +76.78%E +1.87%K +1.92%G +1.47%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
Casumo🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.03%EV -9.45%E -9.36%K -945.18%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.65%EV +56.95%E +2.19%K +2.28%G +1.30%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.32%EV +76.78%E +1.87%K +1.92%G +1.47%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
Grosvenor🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.03%EV -9.45%E -9.36%K -945.18%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.65%EV +56.95%E +2.19%K +2.28%G +1.30%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.32%EV +76.78%E +1.87%K +1.92%G +1.47%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.03%EV -9.45%E -9.36%K -945.18%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.65%EV +56.95%E +2.19%K +2.28%G +1.30%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.32%EV +76.78%E +1.87%K +1.92%G +1.47%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.03%EV -9.45%E -9.36%K -945.18%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.65%EV +56.95%E +2.19%K +2.28%G +1.30%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.32%EV +76.78%E +1.87%K +1.92%G +1.47%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.03%EV -9.45%E -9.36%K -945.18%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.65%EV +56.95%E +2.19%K +2.28%G +1.30%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.32%EV +76.78%E +1.87%K +1.92%G +1.47%5.3%2026-08-29 17:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.16%EV -7.66%E -7.44%K -255.29%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%EV -3.42%E -0.213%K -0.228%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.04%EV -0.828%E -0.036%K -0.038%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 01:10
Betway🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 89.65%EV -9.45%E -9.36%K -945.18%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%EV -9.45%E -0.630%K -0.675%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.31%EV -9.45%E -0.450%K -0.473%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.47%42.00I 2.38%NM 2.37%85.00I 1.18%NM 1.17%0.6%2026-08-30 09:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.32%42.00I 2.38%NM 2.36%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.32%0.8%2026-08-30 09:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.32%42.00I 2.38%NM 2.36%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.32%0.8%2026-08-30 09:55