Brisbane Lions v Essendon Bombers

2026-07-12 06:40 — AFL

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis)

Option 1: Brisbane Lions (Local)

Odds

1.0199.01%Min

1.0397.17%Mean

1.0397.09%Median

1.0595.24%Max

Consensus probabilities

89.55%1.117Min

92.10%1.086Max

90.90%1.100Mean

90.61%1.104Median

90.90%1.100IQM

90.92%1.100Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.05 under the IQM model: 90.90%

EV -4.55%Edge -4.34%Kelly -91.07%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Essendon Bombers (Visit)

Odds

9.0011.11%Min

11.059.05%Mean

11.508.70%Median

12.008.33%Max

Consensus probabilities

7.90%12.650Min

10.45%9.571Max

9.10%10.991Mean

9.39%10.653Median

9.10%10.991IQM

9.08%11.018Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 12.00 under the IQM model: 9.10%

EV +9.18%Edge +0.765%Kelly +0.835%Growth +0.077%

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Brisbane Lions (Local)	Essendon Bombers (Visit) ▼	Margin	Updated
Grosvenor	1.03I 97.09% NM 92.10%EV -6.37% E -6.19% K -212.39% G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33% NM 7.90%EV +9.18% E +0.765% K +0.835% G +0.077%	5.4%	2026-07-05 04:43
Casumo	1.03I 97.09% NM 92.10%EV -6.37% E -6.19% K -212.39% G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33% NM 7.90%EV +9.18% E +0.765% K +0.835% G +0.077%	5.4%	2026-07-05 04:43
Neds	1.03I 97.09% NM 92.10%EV -6.37% E -6.19% K -212.39% G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33% NM 7.90%EV +9.18% E +0.765% K +0.835% G +0.077%	5.4%	2026-07-05 04:45
TABtouch	1.03I 97.09% NM 92.10%EV -6.37% E -6.19% K -212.39% G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33% NM 7.90%EV +9.18% E +0.765% K +0.835% G +0.077%	5.4%	2026-07-05 04:43
Unibet (NL)	1.03I 97.09% NM 92.10%EV -6.37% E -6.19% K -212.39% G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33% NM 7.90%EV +9.18% E +0.765% K +0.835% G +0.077%	5.4%	2026-07-05 04:43
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.03I 97.09% NM 92.10%EV -6.37% E -6.19% K -212.39% G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33% NM 7.90%EV +9.18% E +0.765% K +0.835% G +0.077%	5.4%	2026-07-05 04:45
TAB	1.03I 97.09% NM 91.44%EV -6.37% E -6.19% K -212.39% G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09% NM 8.56%EV +0.086% E +0.008% K +0.009% G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-05 04:45
DraftKings	1.02I 98.04% NM 91.51%EV -7.28% E -7.14% K -364.03% G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09% NM 8.49%EV +0.086% E +0.008% K +0.009% G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-05 04:45
Unibet	1.03I 97.09% NM 90.66%EV -6.37% E -6.19% K -212.39% G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00% NM 9.34%EV -9.01% E -0.901% K -1.00% G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-05 04:44
Marathon Bet	1.03I 97.09% NM 90.58%EV -6.37% E -6.19% K -212.39% G +0.000%	9.90I 10.10% NM 9.42%EV -9.92% E -1.00% K -1.11% G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-07-05 04:45
NetBet (FR)	1.01I 99.01% NM 90.61%EV -8.19% E -8.11% K -818.97% G +0.000%	9.75I 10.26% NM 9.39%EV -11.29% E -1.16% K -1.29% G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-07-05 04:55
Paddy Power	1.05I 95.24% NM 89.55%EV -4.55% E -4.34% K -91.07% G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11% NM 10.45%EV -18.11% E -2.01% K -2.26% G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-05 04:44

Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Brisbane Lions (Local)	Essendon Bombers (Visit)	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.04I 96.15%	13.00I 7.69%	3.8%	2026-07-05 04:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.04I 96.15%	13.00I 7.69%	3.8%	2026-07-05 04:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.04I 96.15%	5.20I 19.23%	15.4%	2026-07-05 04:45