The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Southern Brave v Sunrisers Leeds

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 13:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Brave (Local)

Prediction 37.66%2.66fair odd
EV -0.967%
Edge -0.368%
Kelly -0.593%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.32%37.95%37.50%40.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.502.502.6343.10%40.01%40.00%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sunrisers Leeds (Visit)

Prediction 62.34%1.60fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -4.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.79%62.05%62.50%63.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.521.501.5667.57%66.01%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Southern Brave (Local): 37.66%; Sunrisers Leeds (Visit): 62.34%. For Southern Brave (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.63, with an expected value of -0.967%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -0.967%E -0.368%K -0.593%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-14 13:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -0.967%E -0.368%K -0.593%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-14 12:59
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -1.34%E -0.513%K -0.829%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.97%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 12:58
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.10%E -0.806%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 12:59
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.10%E -0.806%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 13:00
SportsBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.82%EV -4.36%E -1.71%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -7.73%E -5.22%K -16.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 12:59
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.86%E -2.34%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.61%E -3.01%K -8.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 13:09
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.86%E -2.34%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.61%E -3.01%K -8.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 12:59
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.86%E -2.34%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.24%E -3.44%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 13:09
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.86%E -2.34%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.86%E -2.34%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 13:00
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.86%E -2.34%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 12:53
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.86%E -2.34%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 12:52
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.86%E -2.34%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 12:59
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.51%E -4.90%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.37%E -2.17%K -6.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 13:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.51%E -4.90%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.37%E -2.17%K -6.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 13:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.51%E -4.90%K -8.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.37%E -2.17%K -6.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 13:10
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -12.64%E -5.45%K -9.58%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -2.74%E -1.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 12:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76%0.2%2026-08-14 13:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-08-14 13:09
Smarkets◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.32%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.68%2.3%2026-08-14 13:10

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