The School of Odds
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Pakistan v Sri Lanka

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 08:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pakistan (Local)

Prediction 61.92%1.61fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -4.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.45%61.74%62.03%67.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.511.501.5770.42%66.40%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sri Lanka (Visit)

Prediction 38.08%2.63fair odd
EV +10.43%
Edge +3.60%
Kelly +5.49%
Growth +0.573%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%38.26%37.97%39.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.552.502.9041.67%39.21%40.00%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pakistan (Local): 61.92%; Sri Lanka (Visit): 38.08%. For Sri Lanka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -12.07%E -8.50%K -28.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +10.43%E +3.60%K +5.49%G +0.573%4.9%2026-10-27 07:50
TAB🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -8.36%E -5.65%K -17.41%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV +0.910%E +0.343%K +0.552%G +0.005%5.3%2026-10-27 07:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -7.74%E -5.19%K -15.79%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +0.148%E +0.056%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 07:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -7.74%E -5.19%K -15.79%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +0.148%E +0.056%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 07:45
TABtouch🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -7.74%E -5.19%K -15.79%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +0.148%E +0.056%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 07:45
Casumo🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -7.74%E -5.19%K -15.79%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +0.148%E +0.056%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 07:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -7.74%E -5.19%K -15.79%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +0.148%E +0.056%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 07:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -7.74%E -5.19%K -15.79%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +0.148%E +0.056%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 07:45
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -7.74%E -5.19%K -15.79%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +0.148%E +0.056%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 07:45
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -7.74%E -5.19%K -15.79%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +0.148%E +0.056%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 07:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -7.74%E -5.19%K -15.79%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +0.148%E +0.056%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-27 07:45
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -7.12%E -4.75%K -14.24%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -3.28%E -1.29%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-27 07:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.26%E -3.44%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.80%E -1.92%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-27 07:50
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.26%E -3.44%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.80%E -1.92%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-27 07:50
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.26%E -3.44%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.80%E -1.92%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-27 07:35
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.26%E -3.44%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.80%E -1.92%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-27 07:35
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.26%E -3.44%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.80%E -1.92%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-27 07:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.26%E -3.44%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.80%E -1.92%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-27 07:50
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.88%E -3.87%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -4.80%E -1.92%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 07:45
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.88%E -3.87%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -4.80%E -1.92%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 07:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.88%E -3.87%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -4.80%E -1.92%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 07:55
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.12%E -4.75%K -14.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.80%E -1.92%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-27 07:48
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -5.88%E -3.87%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.71%E -2.74%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-27 07:45
Neds🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -5.88%E -3.87%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.71%E -2.74%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-27 07:50
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.78%E -1.77%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -8.61%E -3.59%K -6.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-27 07:35
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.12%E -4.75%K -14.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.61%E -3.59%K -6.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-27 07:32
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.12%E -4.75%K -14.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.61%E -3.59%K -6.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-27 07:53
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-10-27 07:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-10-27 07:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-10-27 07:55