Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gamba Osaka v Vissel Kobe

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 08:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gamba Osaka (Local)

Prediction 26.66%3.75fair odd
EV +7.99%
Edge +1.97%
Kelly +2.62%
Growth +0.209%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.49%26.65%26.69%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.463.454.0530.77%28.89%28.99%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vissel Kobe (Visit)

Prediction 46.25%2.16fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -3.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.59%46.28%46.14%48.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.991.972.0752.63%50.35%50.76%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.09%3.69fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.463%
Kelly -0.639%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.22%27.07%27.18%28.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.393.403.6330.77%29.47%29.41%27.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gamba Osaka (Local): 26.66%; Vissel Kobe (Visit): 46.25%; Draw: 27.09%. For Gamba Osaka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.49%EV +7.99%E +1.97%K +2.62%G +0.209%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.04%EV -8.42%E -4.25%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.48%EV -9.54%E -2.86%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 07:54
Pinnacle🎯3.62I 27.62%NM 26.69%EV -3.48%E -0.960%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.68%EV -4.26%E -2.06%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.62%EV -1.68%E -0.463%K -0.639%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 07:45
BetOnline.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.70%EV -5.65%E -2.77%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -3.85%E -1.08%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 07:45
LowVig.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.70%EV -5.65%E -2.77%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -3.85%E -1.08%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-20 07:44
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.57%E -3.25%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -2.49%E -0.693%K -0.959%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 07:54
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.90%EV -8.42%E -4.25%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 07:54
Tipico (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -12.12%E -6.38%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.20%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 07:49
Bovada🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 07:54
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 07:09
ATG (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 07:10
BetAnything🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 07:54
DraftKings🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 07:34
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-20 07:39
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.12%EV -6.11%E -3.01%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-20 07:54
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.20%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 07:49
BetRivers🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -8.89%E -4.51%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 07:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.86%EV -8.89%E -4.51%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 07:10
Marathon Bet🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 26.87%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.79%EV -6.11%E -3.01%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 07:44
NordicBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -6.57%E -3.25%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 07:39
Betsson🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -6.57%E -3.25%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 07:44
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.55%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.50%EV -8.89%E -4.51%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 07:09
Grosvenor🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.49%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.63%EV -9.35%E -4.77%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 07:09
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.49%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.63%EV -9.35%E -4.77%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 07:10
Casumo🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.49%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.63%EV -9.35%E -4.77%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 07:09
TABtouch🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.49%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.63%EV -9.35%E -4.77%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 07:10
Unibet (NL)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.49%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.63%EV -9.35%E -4.77%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 07:09
betPARX🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.49%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.63%EV -9.35%E -4.77%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 07:09
Virgin Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.43%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.76%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 07:10
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.43%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.76%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 07:09
PMU (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.88%EV -10.27%E -5.30%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 07:10
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -6.57%E -3.25%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 07:55
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 07:39
Bet Right🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.50%EV -8.89%E -4.51%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.55%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 07:55
Betr (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 07:54
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 07:39
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 07:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 07:55
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 07:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 07:55
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 07:54
Unibet (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.18%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.85%EV -12.12%E -6.38%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 07:44
Winamax (DE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -10.67%E -3.19%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.01%EV -8.42%E -4.25%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -7.91%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 07:39
Betclic (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.61%EV -10.67%E -3.19%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.96%EV -10.27%E -5.30%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.43%EV -11.97%E -3.68%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-20 07:43
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 07:54
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 07:54
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 07:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -10.62%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 07:55
Sky Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -11.97%E -3.68%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-20 07:39
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -13.34%E -4.10%K -5.93%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.70%EV -9.35%E -4.77%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -9.27%E -2.77%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-20 07:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.53%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.91%0.4%2026-09-20 07:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.53%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.91%0.4%2026-09-20 07:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.53%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.91%0.4%2026-09-20 07:55
Matchbook3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.53%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.91%0.4%2026-09-20 07:49
Smarkets3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.20%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08%1.2%2026-09-20 07:49
Kalshi3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46%2.1%2026-09-20 07:29