Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC v Shanghai SIPG FC

Inicio: 2026-10-24 07:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local)

Predicción 30.72%3.26momio equitativo
EV +2.30%
Ventaja +0.691%
Kelly +0.987%
Crecimiento +0.023%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.13%30.77%30.70%33.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.623.003.003.3338.17%33.35%33.33%30.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Shanghai SIPG FC (Visitante)

Predicción 43.16%2.32momio equitativo
EV -0.739%
Ventaja -0.321%
Kelly -0.569%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.14%43.01%43.27%45.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.932.152.152.3051.81%46.50%46.51%43.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.12%3.83momio equitativo
EV -1.78%
Ventaja -0.473%
Kelly -0.645%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.29%26.23%26.03%28.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.453.453.7632.26%28.98%28.99%26.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local): 30.72%; Shanghai SIPG FC (Visitante): 43.16%; Empate: 26.12%. Para Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.26. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.33, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.30%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 28.13%EV +2.30%E +0.691%K +0.987%G +0.023%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.48%EV -11.10%E -5.39%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 07:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -1.69%E -0.529%K -0.770%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.34%EV -7.64%E -3.57%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.00%EV -4.65%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 07:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.55%EV -1.69%E -0.529%K -0.770%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.19%EV -7.64%E -3.57%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 07:25
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -1.69%E -0.529%K -0.770%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 07:25
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -1.69%E -0.529%K -0.770%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -8.51%E -4.01%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -1.69%E -0.529%K -0.770%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.90%EV -14.98%E -7.60%K -15.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 07:25
BetUS🎯3.19I 31.35%NM 29.82%EV -2.00%E -0.627%K -0.913%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.88%EV -8.51%E -4.01%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.30%EV -1.78%E -0.473%K -0.645%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 07:20
Pinnacle🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.13%EV -2.92%E -0.925%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.28%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.59%EV -2.83%E -0.759%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 07:15
GTbets🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.57%EV -4.15%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.16%EV -4.62%E -2.09%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.27%EV -5.18%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 07:25
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -4.77%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -2.04%E -0.544%K -0.742%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 07:24
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.77%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -4.65%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 07:19
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -4.77%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -11.53%E -5.62%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 07:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -4.77%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -11.53%E -5.62%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 07:25
picklebet_au🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -2.90%E -1.29%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 07:14
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -1.60%E -0.703%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -1.60%E -0.703%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:25
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -1.60%E -0.703%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:25
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -1.60%E -0.703%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:25
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -1.60%E -0.703%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:25
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -1.60%E -0.703%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 07:24
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 07:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 07:25
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 07:14
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 07:25
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 07:25
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 07:25
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 07:23
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 07:25
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 07:24
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 07:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 07:25
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.38%EV -10.23%E -4.92%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-24 07:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.11%EV -9.07%E -3.06%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.43%EV -6.35%E -2.93%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.46%EV -9.09%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 07:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -9.37%E -3.18%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -5.92%E -2.71%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 07:20
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -9.37%E -3.18%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -5.92%E -2.71%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 07:20
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -9.37%E -3.18%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -5.92%E -2.71%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 07:14
LeoVegas🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.54%EV -10.91%E -3.76%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.95%EV -5.92%E -2.71%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 07:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.52%E -4.00%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 07:15
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.52%E -4.00%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 07:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.97%EV -12.45%E -4.37%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.37%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 07:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.13%EV -12.45%E -4.37%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.70%EV -5.92%E -2.71%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -17.71%E -5.62%K -8.24%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-24 07:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.80%EV -13.98%E -4.99%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.40%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 07:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.20%EV -13.98%E -4.99%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.63%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.18%EV -19.02%E -6.14%K -9.06%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-24 07:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.20%EV -13.98%E -4.99%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.63%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.18%EV -19.02%E -6.14%K -9.06%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-24 07:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.31%EV -13.98%E -4.99%K -7.77%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 43.97%EV -16.71%E -8.66%K -17.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.72%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-24 07:15
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -15.52%E -5.64%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -0.739%E -0.321%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -16.41%E -5.13%K -7.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-24 07:14
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.45%EV -19.51%E -7.45%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.77%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.78%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-24 07:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-10-24 07:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-10-24 07:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-10-24 07:25
Matchbook◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-10-24 07:25
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-10-24 07:25