The School of Odds

FC Würzburger Kickers v 1. FC Köln

2026-08-21 16:00 — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: FC Würzburger Kickers (Local)

6.2516.00%Min
7.9412.60%Mean
7.2513.79%Median
11.009.09%Max
8.43%11.859Min
13.49%7.410Max
10.18%9.825Mean
10.18%9.825Median
10.18%9.825IQM
10.53%9.495Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 11.00 under the IQM model: 10.18%

EV +11.96%Edge +1.09%Kelly +1.20%Growth +0.143%

Option 2: 1. FC Köln (Visit)

1.2083.33%Min
1.2381.14%Mean
1.2182.64%Median
1.3176.34%Max
70.29%1.423Min
77.30%1.294Max
75.06%1.332Mean
75.06%1.332Median
75.06%1.332IQM
74.60%1.340Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.31 under the IQM model: 75.06%

EV -1.68%Edge -1.28%Kelly -5.41%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

5.2019.23%Min
5.8916.99%Mean
5.9216.88%Median
6.5015.38%Max
14.27%7.008Min
16.22%6.165Max
14.77%6.772Mean
14.77%6.772Median
14.77%6.772IQM
14.87%6.726Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 6.50 under the IQM model: 14.77%

EV -4.02%Edge -0.619%Kelly -0.731%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

BookmakerFC Würzburger Kickers (Local) ▼1. FC Köln (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)11.00I 9.09% NM 8.43%EV +11.96% E +1.09% K +1.20% G +0.143%1.20I 83.33% NM 77.30%EV -9.93% E -8.28% K -49.66% G +0.000%6.50I 15.38% NM 14.27%EV -4.02% E -0.619% K -0.731% G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-06 22:09
BetMGM8.00I 12.50% NM 11.92%EV -18.58% E -2.32% K -2.65% G +0.000%1.31I 76.34% NM 72.81%EV -1.68% E -1.28% K -5.41% G +0.000%6.25I 16.00% NM 15.26%EV -7.71% E -1.23% K -1.47% G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-11 11:00
Winamax (DE)6.50I 15.38% NM 13.35%EV -33.84% E -5.21% K -6.15% G +0.000%1.22I 81.97% NM 71.15%EV -8.43% E -6.91% K -38.33% G +0.000%5.60I 17.86% NM 15.50%EV -17.31% E -3.09% K -3.76% G +0.000%15.2%2026-06-23 11:30
Winamax (FR)6.25I 16.00% NM 13.49%EV -36.39% E -5.82% K -6.93% G +0.000%1.20I 83.33% NM 70.29%EV -9.93% E -8.28% K -49.66% G +0.000%5.20I 19.23% NM 16.22%EV -23.22% E -4.46% K -5.53% G +0.000%18.6%2026-06-23 11:30
Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.