Melbourne Demons v Richmond Tigers

2026-07-12 05:15 — AFL

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (4 in analysis)

Option 1: Melbourne Demons (Local)

Odds

1.0298.04%Min

1.0991.44%Mean

1.1090.91%Median

1.1190.09%Max

Consensus probabilities

85.03%1.176Min

86.59%1.155Max

86.24%1.160Mean

86.37%1.158Median

86.37%1.158IQM

86.25%1.159Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.11 under the IQM model: 86.37%

EV -4.13%Edge -3.72%Kelly -37.59%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Richmond Tigers (Visit)

Odds

6.2516.00%Min

6.7614.79%Mean

6.9014.49%Median

7.1014.08%Max

Consensus probabilities

13.41%7.455Min

14.97%6.682Max

13.76%7.267Mean

13.63%7.334Median

13.63%7.334IQM

13.75%7.272Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 7.10 under the IQM model: 13.63%

EV -3.19%Edge -0.450%Kelly -0.524%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Melbourne Demons (Local) ▼	Richmond Tigers (Visit)	Margin	Updated
Neds	1.11I 90.09% NM 85.41%EV -4.13% E -3.72% K -37.59% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 14.59%EV -11.37% E -1.75% K -2.07% G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-05 04:40
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.11I 90.09% NM 85.41%EV -4.13% E -3.72% K -37.59% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 14.59%EV -11.37% E -1.75% K -2.07% G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-05 04:45
Paddy Power	1.11I 90.09% NM 85.41%EV -4.13% E -3.72% K -37.59% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 14.59%EV -11.37% E -1.75% K -2.07% G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-05 04:44
Coolbet	1.10I 90.91% NM 86.59%EV -5.00% E -4.54% K -49.98% G +0.000%	7.10I 14.08% NM 13.41%EV -3.19% E -0.450% K -0.524% G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-05 05:45
TAB	1.10I 90.91% NM 86.42%EV -5.00% E -4.54% K -49.98% G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29% NM 13.58%EV -4.56% E -0.651% K -0.760% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-05 04:40
Casumo	1.10I 90.91% NM 86.42%EV -5.00% E -4.54% K -49.98% G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29% NM 13.58%EV -4.56% E -0.651% K -0.760% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-05 04:40
Grosvenor	1.10I 90.91% NM 86.42%EV -5.00% E -4.54% K -49.98% G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29% NM 13.58%EV -4.56% E -0.651% K -0.760% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-05 04:40
TABtouch	1.10I 90.91% NM 86.42%EV -5.00% E -4.54% K -49.98% G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29% NM 13.58%EV -4.56% E -0.651% K -0.760% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-05 04:40
Unibet (NL)	1.10I 90.91% NM 86.42%EV -5.00% E -4.54% K -49.98% G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29% NM 13.58%EV -4.56% E -0.651% K -0.760% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-05 04:40
Unibet	1.10I 90.91% NM 85.03%EV -5.00% E -4.54% K -49.98% G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00% NM 14.97%EV -14.78% E -2.37% K -2.82% G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-05 04:40
PlayUp	1.09I 91.74% NM 86.53%EV -5.86% E -5.38% K -65.13% G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29% NM 13.47%EV -4.56% E -0.651% K -0.760% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-05 04:40
DraftKings	1.09I 91.74% NM 85.64%EV -5.86% E -5.38% K -65.13% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 14.36%EV -11.37% E -1.75% K -2.07% G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-05 04:45
Marathon Bet	1.08I 92.59% NM 86.29%EV -6.73% E -6.23% K -84.07% G +0.000%	6.80I 14.71% NM 13.71%EV -7.28% E -1.07% K -1.26% G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-05 05:50
NetBet (FR)	1.02I 98.04% NM 86.44%EV -11.91% E -11.67% K -595.37% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 13.56%EV -11.37% E -1.75% K -2.07% G +0.000%	13.4%	2026-07-05 04:45

Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Melbourne Demons (Local)	Richmond Tigers (Visit)	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.11I 90.09%	7.00I 14.29%	4.4%	2026-07-05 04:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.11I 90.09%	7.00I 14.29%	4.4%	2026-07-05 04:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.11I 90.09%	7.00I 14.29%	4.4%	2026-07-05 04:40