The School of OddsJuventude v Vila Nova
Head to Head
Option 1: Juventude (Local)
Odds
1.8853.19%Min
1.9451.53%Mean
1.9750.76%Median
1.9850.51%Max
Consensus probabilities
46.50%2.150Min
47.12%2.122Max
46.65%2.144Mean
46.65%2.144Median
46.65%2.144IQM
46.65%2.144Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.98 under the IQM model: 46.65%
EV -7.63%Edge -3.86%Kelly -7.79%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Vila Nova (Visit)
Odds
3.5028.57%Min
3.6627.34%Mean
3.7526.67%Median
3.7526.67%Max
Consensus probabilities
24.75%4.040Min
25.15%3.976Max
24.92%4.012Mean
24.92%4.012Median
24.92%4.012IQM
24.92%4.012Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.75 under the IQM model: 24.92%
EV -6.54%Edge -1.74%Kelly -2.38%Growth +0.000%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
3.1032.26%Min
3.2231.03%Mean
3.3030.30%Median
3.3030.30%Max
Consensus probabilities
28.13%3.555Min
28.46%3.513Max
28.43%3.518Mean
28.43%3.518Median
28.43%3.518IQM
28.43%3.518Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.30 under the IQM model: 28.43%
EV -6.19%Edge -1.88%Kelly -2.69%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Juventude (Local) ▼ | Vila Nova (Visit) | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 1.98I 50.51% NM 46.99%EV -7.63% E -3.86% K -7.79% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.81%EV -6.54% E -1.74% K -2.38% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.20%EV -6.19% E -1.88% K -2.69% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-03 22:55 |
| Casumo | 1.97I 50.76% NM 47.12%EV -8.10% E -4.11% K -8.35% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.75%EV -6.54% E -1.74% K -2.38% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.13%EV -6.19% E -1.88% K -2.69% G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-03 22:55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.97I 50.76% NM 47.12%EV -8.10% E -4.11% K -8.35% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.75%EV -6.54% E -1.74% K -2.38% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.13%EV -6.19% E -1.88% K -2.69% G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-03 22:54 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.97I 50.76% NM 47.12%EV -8.10% E -4.11% K -8.35% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.75%EV -6.54% E -1.74% K -2.38% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.13%EV -6.19% E -1.88% K -2.69% G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-03 22:54 |
| betPARX | 1.97I 50.76% NM 47.12%EV -8.10% E -4.11% K -8.35% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.75%EV -6.54% E -1.74% K -2.38% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.13%EV -6.19% E -1.88% K -2.69% G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-03 22:54 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.97I 50.76% NM 47.12%EV -8.10% E -4.11% K -8.35% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.75%EV -6.54% E -1.74% K -2.38% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.13%EV -6.19% E -1.88% K -2.69% G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-03 22:50 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.97I 50.76% NM 47.12%EV -8.10% E -4.11% K -8.35% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.75%EV -6.54% E -1.74% K -2.38% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.13%EV -6.19% E -1.88% K -2.69% G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-03 22:50 |
| BetRivers | 1.95I 51.28% NM 46.65%EV -9.03% E -4.63% K -9.51% G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40% NM 24.92%EV -9.03% E -2.47% K -3.41% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.43%EV -9.03% E -2.82% K -4.11% G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-03 22:54 |
| Grosvenor | 1.92I 52.08% NM 46.50%EV -10.43% E -5.43% K -11.34% G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17% NM 25.15%EV -11.52% E -3.25% K -4.52% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 28.35%EV -10.45% E -3.32% K -4.86% G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-03 22:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.91I 52.36% NM 46.63%EV -10.90% E -5.71% K -11.98% G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17% NM 25.09%EV -11.52% E -3.25% K -4.52% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 28.28%EV -10.45% E -3.32% K -4.86% G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-07-03 22:50 |
| TABtouch | 1.89I 52.91% NM 46.68%EV -11.83% E -6.26% K -13.29% G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17% NM 24.85%EV -11.52% E -3.25% K -4.52% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 28.46%EV -11.88% E -3.83% K -5.65% G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-07-03 22:55 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.88I 53.19% NM 46.65%EV -12.30% E -6.54% K -13.97% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 25.06%EV -12.77% E -3.65% K -5.11% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 28.29%EV -11.88% E -3.83% K -5.65% G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-03 22:50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.88I 53.19% NM 46.65%EV -12.30% E -6.54% K -13.97% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 25.06%EV -12.77% E -3.65% K -5.11% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 28.29%EV -11.88% E -3.83% K -5.65% G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-03 22:50 |
Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.