Fremantle Dockers v Sydney Swans

2026-07-09 10:10 — AFL

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis)

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Option 1: Fremantle Dockers (Local)

Odds

1.3772.99%Min

1.4668.60%Mean

1.4768.03%Median

1.5066.67%Max

Consensus probabilities

63.16%1.583Min

65.48%1.527Max

64.06%1.561Mean

64.32%1.555Median

64.14%1.559IQM

64.08%1.561Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.50 under the IQM model: 64.14%

EV -3.79%Edge -2.53%Kelly -7.59%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Sydney Swans (Visit)

Odds

2.4041.67%Min

2.6338.06%Mean

2.6537.74%Median

2.7536.36%Max

Consensus probabilities

34.52%2.897Min

36.84%2.714Max

35.94%2.782Mean

35.68%2.803Median

35.86%2.788IQM

35.92%2.784Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.75 under the IQM model: 35.86%

EV -1.38%Edge -0.500%Kelly -0.786%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Fremantle Dockers (Local) ▼	Sydney Swans (Visit)	Margin	Updated
Paddy Power	1.50I 66.67% NM 63.59%EV -3.79% E -2.53% K -7.59% G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17% NM 36.41%EV -6.04% E -2.30% K -3.73% G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-05 04:25
TAB	1.48I 67.57% NM 64.59%EV -5.08% E -3.43% K -10.58% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 35.41%EV -3.17% E -1.17% K -1.86% G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-05 04:25
Coolbet	1.48I 67.57% NM 64.34%EV -5.08% E -3.43% K -10.58% G +0.000%	2.67I 37.45% NM 35.66%EV -4.25% E -1.59% K -2.54% G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-05 05:10
PlayUp	1.48I 67.57% NM 63.73%EV -5.08% E -3.43% K -10.58% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 36.27%EV -6.76% E -2.60% K -4.22% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-05 04:30
Grosvenor	1.47I 68.03% NM 64.75%EV -5.72% E -3.89% K -12.17% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 35.25%EV -3.17% E -1.17% K -1.86% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 04:25
Casumo	1.47I 68.03% NM 64.75%EV -5.72% E -3.89% K -12.17% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 35.25%EV -3.17% E -1.17% K -1.86% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 04:30
TABtouch	1.47I 68.03% NM 64.75%EV -5.72% E -3.89% K -12.17% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 35.25%EV -3.17% E -1.17% K -1.86% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 04:30
Unibet (NL)	1.47I 68.03% NM 64.75%EV -5.72% E -3.89% K -12.17% G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04% NM 35.25%EV -3.17% E -1.17% K -1.86% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-05 04:30
Unibet	1.47I 68.03% NM 64.15%EV -5.72% E -3.89% K -12.17% G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02% NM 35.85%EV -5.68% E -2.16% K -3.48% G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-05 04:25
Marathon Bet	1.47I 68.03% NM 63.25%EV -5.72% E -3.89% K -12.17% G +0.000%	2.53I 39.53% NM 36.75%EV -9.27% E -3.66% K -6.06% G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-05 04:30
Neds	1.45I 68.97% NM 65.48%EV -7.00% E -4.83% K -15.56% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 34.52%EV -1.38% E -0.500% K -0.786% G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-05 04:30
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.45I 68.97% NM 65.48%EV -7.00% E -4.83% K -15.56% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 34.52%EV -1.38% E -0.500% K -0.786% G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-05 04:30
DraftKings	1.45I 68.97% NM 64.63%EV -7.00% E -4.83% K -15.56% G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74% NM 35.37%EV -4.96% E -1.87% K -3.01% G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-05 04:30
Betsson	1.45I 68.97% NM 63.75%EV -7.00% E -4.83% K -15.56% G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22% NM 36.25%EV -8.55% E -3.35% K -5.52% G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-05 04:30
NordicBet	1.45I 68.97% NM 63.75%EV -7.00% E -4.83% K -15.56% G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22% NM 36.25%EV -8.55% E -3.35% K -5.52% G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-05 04:30
Unibet (FR)	1.40I 71.43% NM 63.16%EV -10.21% E -7.29% K -25.52% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 36.84%EV -13.93% E -5.80% K -9.95% G +0.000%	13.1%	2026-07-05 04:30
NetBet (FR)	1.37I 72.99% NM 64.32%EV -12.13% E -8.86% K -32.79% G +0.000%	2.47I 40.49% NM 35.68%EV -11.42% E -4.62% K -7.77% G +0.000%	13.5%	2026-07-05 04:25

Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Fremantle Dockers (Local)	Sydney Swans (Visit)	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.50I 66.67%	2.90I 34.48%	1.1%	2026-07-05 04:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.50I 66.67%	2.90I 34.48%	1.1%	2026-07-05 04:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.50I 66.67%	2.90I 34.48%	1.1%	2026-07-05 04:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas	1.45I 68.97%	2.60I 38.46%	80.00I 1.25%	8.7%	2026-07-05 04:30