The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Manchester City v Real Madrid

Kickoff: 2026-10-01 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manchester City (Local)

Prediction 55.44%1.80fair odd
EV -5.76%
Edge -3.39%
Kelly -8.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.15%55.43%55.39%58.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.621.621.7065.79%61.78%61.92%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 22.37%4.47fair odd
EV +6.27%
Edge +1.32%
Kelly +1.67%
Growth +0.105%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.93%22.38%22.46%24.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.174.204.7527.78%23.96%23.81%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.19%4.51fair odd
EV +5.19%
Edge +1.09%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.072%

assuming max odds 4.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.71%22.19%22.15%23.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.094.104.7426.32%24.47%24.39%21.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manchester City (Local): 55.44%; Real Madrid (Visit): 22.37%; Draw: 22.19%. For Real Madrid (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.47. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.06%EV -9.64%E -5.91%K -15.30%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.93%EV +6.27%E +1.32%K +1.67%G +0.105%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -4.57%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 18:05
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.54%EV -11.30%E -7.06%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV +2.91%E +0.633%K +0.809%G +0.024%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.01%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 18:10
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.54%EV -11.30%E -7.06%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV +2.91%E +0.633%K +0.809%G +0.024%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.01%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 18:09
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.54%EV -11.30%E -7.06%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV +2.91%E +0.633%K +0.809%G +0.024%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.01%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 18:10
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.54%EV -11.30%E -7.06%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV +2.91%E +0.633%K +0.809%G +0.024%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.01%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 18:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.54%EV -11.30%E -7.06%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV +2.91%E +0.633%K +0.809%G +0.024%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.01%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 18:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.54%EV -11.30%E -7.06%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV +2.91%E +0.633%K +0.809%G +0.024%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.01%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.18%EV -14.07%E -9.08%K -25.59%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.38%EV -2.68%E -0.617%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.44%EV -12.34%E -3.12%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-01 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.18%EV -14.07%E -9.08%K -25.59%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.38%EV -2.68%E -0.617%K -0.801%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.44%EV -12.34%E -3.12%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-01 18:05
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.86%EV -8.53%E -5.17%K -13.12%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -3.13%E -0.723%K -0.940%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.47%EV -3.02%E -0.691%K -0.896%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-01 18:50
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.59%EV -15.18%E -9.92%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -3.13%E -0.723%K -0.940%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -3.91%E -0.903%K -1.17%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-01 18:55
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.31%E -3.74%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -3.80%E -0.884%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -4.57%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 14:40
Coolbet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -7.42%E -4.44%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -3.80%E -0.884%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -6.79%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 22:34
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.47%EV -6.31%E -3.74%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -6.04%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -13.45%E -3.45%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 17:30
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.70%EV -8.53%E -5.17%K -13.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -6.04%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -9.01%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-01 18:49
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.70%EV -8.53%E -5.17%K -13.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -6.04%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -9.01%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-01 18:48
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -10.19%E -6.29%K -16.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -6.04%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -9.01%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-01 17:20
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.01%EV -15.74%E -10.35%K -30.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -6.04%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -6.79%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-01 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.40%EV -8.53%E -5.17%K -13.12%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 22.46%EV -8.95%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 22.13%EV -8.35%E -2.02%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-01 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -5.76%E -3.39%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -10.51%E -2.63%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -6.79%E -1.62%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-01 18:10
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.75%EV -8.53%E -5.17%K -13.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.51%E -2.63%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -3.91%E -0.903%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-01 18:00
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.15%EV -8.53%E -5.17%K -13.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -10.51%E -2.63%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -15.67%E -4.12%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-01 17:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.15%EV -8.53%E -5.17%K -13.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -10.51%E -2.63%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -15.67%E -4.12%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-01 17:30
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -8.53%E -5.17%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -11.63%E -2.94%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.32%EV -10.12%E -2.50%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-01 18:05
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -8.53%E -5.17%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -11.63%E -2.94%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.32%EV -10.12%E -2.50%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-01 18:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.25%EV -10.75%E -6.68%K -17.62%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.52%EV -11.63%E -2.94%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-01 18:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 55.55%EV -11.86%E -7.46%K -20.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -12.75%E -3.27%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.81%EV -10.12%E -2.50%K -3.32%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-01 18:33
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 54.78%EV -10.75%E -6.68%K -17.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.61%EV -12.75%E -3.27%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.61%EV -13.45%E -3.45%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-01 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 54.78%EV -10.75%E -6.68%K -17.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.61%EV -12.75%E -3.27%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.61%EV -13.45%E -3.45%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-01 16:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 54.78%EV -10.75%E -6.68%K -17.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.61%EV -12.75%E -3.27%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.61%EV -13.45%E -3.45%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-01 16:01
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.28%EV -7.98%E -4.80%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.02%EV -12.97%E -3.33%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 19.71%EV +5.19%E +1.09%K +1.39%G +0.072%7.0%2026-10-01 18:50
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.30%EV -10.19%E -6.29%K -16.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.15%EV -14.99%E -3.94%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.55%EV -13.45%E -3.45%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-01 16:01
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.38%EV -12.97%E -8.26%K -22.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.88%EV -14.99%E -3.94%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.74%EV -11.23%E -2.81%K -3.74%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-01 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 54.39%EV -14.07%E -9.08%K -25.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.42%EV -19.46%E -5.41%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.19%EV -15.67%E -4.12%K -5.60%G +0.000%18.6%2026-10-01 18:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.07%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.25%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.68%0.8%2026-10-01 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.07%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.25%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.68%0.8%2026-10-01 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.07%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.25%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.68%0.8%2026-10-01 18:55
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.57%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.50%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.93%1.6%2026-10-01 18:55