Carlton Blues v Hawthorn Hawks

2026-07-11 09:35 — AFL

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis)

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Option 1: Carlton Blues (Local)

Odds

2.5539.22%Min

2.7636.26%Mean

2.7636.23%Median

3.0033.33%Max

Consensus probabilities

31.82%3.143Min

35.10%2.849Max

33.69%2.968Mean

33.84%2.955Median

33.79%2.959IQM

33.67%2.970Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.00 under the IQM model: 33.79%

EV +1.38%Edge +0.459%Kelly +0.689%Growth +0.009%

Option 2: Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)

Odds

1.3375.19%Min

1.4270.59%Mean

1.4369.93%Median

1.4668.49%Max

Consensus probabilities

64.90%1.541Min

68.18%1.467Max

66.31%1.508Mean

66.16%1.512Median

66.21%1.510IQM

66.33%1.508Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.46 under the IQM model: 66.21%

EV -3.34%Edge -2.29%Kelly -7.25%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Carlton Blues (Local) ▼	Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)	Margin	Updated
TAB	3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV +1.38% E +0.459% K +0.689% G +0.009%	1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -7.31% E -5.22% K -18.27% G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-05 04:30
PlayUp	2.90I 34.48% NM 32.56%EV -2.00% E -0.690% K -1.05% G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43% NM 67.44%EV -7.31% E -5.22% K -18.27% G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-05 04:30
DraftKings	2.85I 35.09% NM 32.94%EV -3.69% E -1.30% K -2.00% G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43% NM 67.06%EV -7.31% E -5.22% K -18.27% G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-05 04:30
Coolbet	2.80I 35.71% NM 33.96%EV -5.38% E -1.92% K -2.99% G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44% NM 66.04%EV -4.66% E -3.24% K -10.59% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-05 05:10
Grosvenor	2.80I 35.71% NM 33.81%EV -5.38% E -1.92% K -2.99% G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93% NM 66.19%EV -5.32% E -3.72% K -12.38% G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-05 04:30
Casumo	2.80I 35.71% NM 33.81%EV -5.38% E -1.92% K -2.99% G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93% NM 66.19%EV -5.32% E -3.72% K -12.38% G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-05 04:30
TABtouch	2.80I 35.71% NM 33.81%EV -5.38% E -1.92% K -2.99% G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93% NM 66.19%EV -5.32% E -3.72% K -12.38% G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-05 04:30
Unibet (NL)	2.80I 35.71% NM 33.81%EV -5.38% E -1.92% K -2.99% G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93% NM 66.19%EV -5.32% E -3.72% K -12.38% G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-05 04:30
Marathon Bet	2.77I 36.10% NM 33.57%EV -6.39% E -2.31% K -3.61% G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43% NM 66.43%EV -7.31% E -5.22% K -18.27% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-05 04:30
Paddy Power	2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -7.07% E -2.57% K -4.04% G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -4.66% E -3.24% K -10.59% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-05 04:30
Bet Right	2.72I 36.76% NM 34.93%EV -8.08% E -2.97% K -4.70% G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49% NM 65.07%EV -3.34% E -2.29% K -7.25% G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-05 04:35
Neds	2.70I 37.04% NM 35.10%EV -8.76% E -3.24% K -5.15% G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49% NM 64.90%EV -3.34% E -2.29% K -7.25% G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-05 04:30
Ladbrokes (AU)	2.70I 37.04% NM 35.10%EV -8.76% E -3.24% K -5.15% G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49% NM 64.90%EV -3.34% E -2.29% K -7.25% G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-05 04:30
Unibet	2.70I 37.04% NM 34.78%EV -8.76% E -3.24% K -5.15% G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44% NM 65.22%EV -4.66% E -3.24% K -10.59% G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-05 04:30
NordicBet	2.70I 37.04% NM 34.15%EV -8.76% E -3.24% K -5.15% G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43% NM 65.85%EV -7.31% E -5.22% K -18.27% G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-05 04:30
Betsson	2.70I 37.04% NM 34.15%EV -8.76% E -3.24% K -5.15% G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43% NM 65.85%EV -7.31% E -5.22% K -18.27% G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-05 04:30
NetBet (FR)	2.60I 38.46% NM 33.84%EV -12.14% E -4.67% K -7.59% G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19% NM 66.16%EV -11.94% E -8.98% K -36.19% G +0.000%	13.6%	2026-07-05 04:30
Unibet (FR)	2.55I 39.22% NM 34.62%EV -13.83% E -5.42% K -8.92% G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07% NM 65.38%EV -10.62% E -7.87% K -30.34% G +0.000%	13.3%	2026-07-05 04:30

Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Carlton Blues (Local)	Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)	2.82I 35.46%	1.50I 66.67%	2.1%	2026-07-05 06:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)	2.82I 35.46%	1.50I 66.67%	2.1%	2026-07-05 06:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)	2.82I 35.46%	1.50I 66.67%	2.1%	2026-07-05 06:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas	2.75I 36.36%	1.40I 71.43%	80.00I 1.25%	9.0%	2026-07-05 04:30