The School of Odds

Rochester Red Wings v Lehigh Valley IronPigs

2026-07-04 22:45 — MiLB

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis)

Option 1: Rochester Red Wings (Local)

1.6261.73%Min
1.6759.78%Mean
1.6859.52%Median
1.6959.17%Max
55.41%1.805Min
57.37%1.743Max
56.40%1.773Mean
56.02%1.785Median
56.29%1.777IQM
56.37%1.774Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.69 under the IQM model: 56.29%

EV -4.88%Edge -2.89%Kelly -7.07%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Visit)

2.1047.62%Min
2.1446.64%Mean
2.1446.73%Median
2.2045.45%Max
42.63%2.346Min
44.59%2.243Max
43.60%2.293Mean
43.98%2.274Median
43.71%2.288IQM
43.63%2.292Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.20 under the IQM model: 43.71%

EV -3.83%Edge -1.74%Kelly -3.19%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

BookmakerRochester Red Wings (Local) ▼Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Visit)MarginUpdated
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17% NM 55.99%EV -4.88% E -2.89% K -7.07% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.01%EV -6.01% E -2.80% K -5.23% G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 12:25
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17% NM 55.76%EV -4.88% E -2.89% K -7.07% G +0.000%2.13I 46.95% NM 44.24%EV -6.89% E -3.23% K -6.10% G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-04 12:30
Bovada1.69I 59.17% NM 55.41%EV -4.88% E -2.89% K -7.07% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.59%EV -8.20% E -3.91% K -7.46% G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-04 13:43
FanDuel1.68I 59.52% NM 56.02%EV -5.44% E -3.24% K -8.00% G +0.000%2.14I 46.73% NM 43.98%EV -6.45% E -3.01% K -5.66% G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-04 12:25
Caesars1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -6.00% E -3.59% K -8.96% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -3.83% E -1.74% K -3.19% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 13:50
1xBet1.67I 59.88% NM 55.82%EV -6.00% E -3.59% K -8.96% G +0.000%2.11I 47.39% NM 44.18%EV -7.76% E -3.68% K -6.99% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 12:39
BetRivers1.62I 61.73% NM 57.37%EV -8.82% E -5.44% K -14.22% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 42.63%EV -4.70% E -2.16% K -3.99% G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-04 15:10
Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.