New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins

2026-07-04 17:36 — MLB

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (12 in analysis)

Option 1: New York Yankees (Local)

Odds

1.5763.69%Min

1.6261.81%Mean

1.6261.73%Median

1.6759.88%Max

Consensus probabilities

58.14%1.720Min

60.45%1.654Max

58.78%1.701Mean

58.67%1.704Median

58.78%1.701IQM

58.86%1.699Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.67 under the IQM model: 58.78%

EV -1.83%Edge -1.10%Kelly -2.73%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Minnesota Twins (Visit)

Odds

2.2045.45%Min

2.3143.23%Mean

2.3043.48%Median

2.4241.32%Max

Consensus probabilities

39.55%2.529Min

41.86%2.389Max

41.22%2.426Mean

41.33%2.420Median

41.22%2.426IQM

41.14%2.430Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.42 under the IQM model: 41.22%

EV -0.259%Edge -0.107%Kelly -0.182%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	New York Yankees (Local) ▼	Minnesota Twins (Visit)	Margin	Updated
1xBet	1.67I 59.88% NM 58.77%EV -1.83% E -1.10% K -2.73% G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02% NM 41.23%EV -1.91% E -0.801% K -1.38% G +0.000%	1.9%	2026-07-03 18:00
GTbets	1.65I 60.61% NM 59.46%EV -3.01% E -1.82% K -4.62% G +0.000%	2.42I 41.32% NM 40.54%EV -0.259% E -0.107% K -0.182% G +0.000%	1.9%	2026-07-03 18:20
BetOnline.ag	1.65I 60.61% NM 59.26%EV -3.01% E -1.82% K -4.62% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 40.74%EV -1.08% E -0.451% K -0.774% G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-07-03 18:00
LowVig.ag	1.65I 60.61% NM 59.26%EV -3.01% E -1.82% K -4.62% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 40.74%EV -1.08% E -0.451% K -0.774% G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-07-03 18:00
MyBookie.ag	1.64I 60.98% NM 58.59%EV -3.59% E -2.19% K -5.61% G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10% NM 41.41%EV -4.38% E -1.89% K -3.32% G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-03 18:24
PointsBet (AU)	1.63I 61.35% NM 59.05%EV -4.18% E -2.57% K -6.64% G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.95%EV -3.14% E -1.34% K -2.33% G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-07-03 18:05
PlayUp	1.63I 61.35% NM 58.52%EV -4.18% E -2.57% K -6.64% G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.48%EV -5.20% E -2.26% K -4.00% G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-03 17:39
NordicBet	1.63I 61.35% NM 58.21%EV -4.18% E -2.57% K -6.64% G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05% NM 41.79%EV -6.44% E -2.84% K -5.07% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-03 18:25
Betsson	1.63I 61.35% NM 58.21%EV -4.18% E -2.57% K -6.64% G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05% NM 41.79%EV -6.44% E -2.84% K -5.07% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-03 18:25
FanDuel	1.62I 61.73% NM 59.30%EV -4.77% E -2.94% K -7.69% G +0.000%	2.36I 42.37% NM 40.70%EV -2.73% E -1.16% K -2.01% G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-03 17:25
Bet Right	1.62I 61.73% NM 58.88%EV -4.77% E -2.94% K -7.69% G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10% NM 41.12%EV -4.38% E -1.89% K -3.32% G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-03 18:20
Unibet (UK)	1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -4.77% E -2.94% K -7.69% G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -5.20% E -2.26% K -4.00% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-03 18:24
William Hill	1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -4.77% E -2.94% K -7.69% G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -5.20% E -2.26% K -4.00% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-03 17:35
888sport	1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -4.77% E -2.94% K -7.69% G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -5.20% E -2.26% K -4.00% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-03 18:20
Betr (AU)	1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -4.77% E -2.94% K -7.69% G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -5.20% E -2.26% K -4.00% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-03 18:20
888sport (SE)	1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -4.77% E -2.94% K -7.69% G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -5.20% E -2.26% K -4.00% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-03 18:20
Mr Green (SE)	1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -4.77% E -2.94% K -7.69% G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -5.20% E -2.26% K -4.00% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-03 18:20
Betway	1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -4.77% E -2.94% K -7.69% G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -5.20% E -2.26% K -4.00% G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-03 18:24
Winamax (DE)	1.62I 61.73% NM 58.14%EV -4.77% E -2.94% K -7.69% G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44% NM 41.86%EV -7.27% E -3.23% K -5.81% G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-03 18:25
Fanatics	1.61I 62.11% NM 59.34%EV -5.36% E -3.33% K -8.78% G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55% NM 40.66%EV -3.14% E -1.34% K -2.33% G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-03 18:05
Coolbet	1.61I 62.11% NM 59.14%EV -5.36% E -3.33% K -8.78% G +0.000%	2.33I 42.92% NM 40.86%EV -3.97% E -1.70% K -2.98% G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-03 18:20
Betclic (FR)	1.61I 62.11% NM 58.51%EV -5.36% E -3.33% K -8.78% G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05% NM 41.49%EV -6.44% E -2.84% K -5.07% G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-03 18:25
ReBet	1.61I 62.11% NM 58.29%EV -5.36% E -3.33% K -8.78% G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44% NM 41.71%EV -7.27% E -3.23% K -5.81% G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-03 18:25
Bet Victor	1.61I 62.11% NM 58.29%EV -5.36% E -3.33% K -8.78% G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44% NM 41.71%EV -7.27% E -3.23% K -5.81% G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-03 18:23
SportsBet	1.59I 62.89% NM 59.34%EV -6.53% E -4.11% K -11.07% G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10% NM 40.66%EV -4.38% E -1.89% K -3.32% G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-03 17:30
Unibet (FR)	1.58I 63.29% NM 58.20%EV -7.12% E -4.51% K -12.28% G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45% NM 41.80%EV -9.33% E -4.24% K -7.77% G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-07-03 18:24
Winamax (FR)	1.58I 63.29% NM 58.20%EV -7.12% E -4.51% K -12.28% G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45% NM 41.80%EV -9.33% E -4.24% K -7.77% G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-07-03 18:25
Fliff	1.57I 63.69% NM 60.45%EV -7.71% E -4.91% K -13.52% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 39.55%EV -1.08% E -0.451% K -0.774% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-03 17:30
Paddy Power	1.57I 63.69% NM 60.25%EV -7.71% E -4.91% K -13.52% G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02% NM 39.75%EV -1.91% E -0.801% K -1.38% G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-03 17:30

Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	New York Yankees (Local)	Minnesota Twins (Visit)	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket	1.59I 62.89%	2.63I 38.02%	0.9%	2026-07-03 17:30
Kalshi	1.64I 60.98%	2.50I 40.00%	1.0%	2026-07-03 17:40
Novig	1.63I 61.35%	2.20I 45.45%	6.8%	2026-07-03 18:29
Smarkets	1.57I 63.69%	2.16I 46.30%	10.0%	2026-07-03 18:25