Language:English
Novak Djokovic v Daniil Medvedev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Novak Djokovic (Local)
Prediction 44.78%2.23fair odd
EV -0.596%
Edge -0.268%
Kelly -0.488%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%44.91%44.74%47.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.102.102.2251.28%47.73%47.62%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniil Medvedev (Visit)
Prediction 55.22%1.81fair odd
EV +0.506%
Edge +0.278%
Kelly +0.617%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 1.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.60%55.09%55.26%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.721.731.8260.98%58.21%57.80%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Novak Djokovic (Local): 44.78%; Daniil Medvedev (Visit): 55.22%. For Daniil Medvedev (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.82, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.506%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -9.55%E -4.73%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV +0.506%E +0.278%K +0.617%G +0.003% | 4.5% | 2026-10-05 10:58 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -10.45%E -5.22%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -0.598%E -0.332%K -0.748%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-05 11:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.25%E -1.27%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-05 11:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -9.55%E -4.73%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -3.36%E -1.92%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-05 10:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -9.55%E -4.73%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -3.36%E -1.92%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-05 10:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -12.69%E -6.51%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -3.36%E -1.92%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-05 08:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -0.596%E -0.268%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -3.91%E -2.25%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-10-05 11:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.73%E -1.73%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.91%E -2.25%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-05 08:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.07%E -2.39%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.91%E -2.25%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-05 11:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.91%E -2.25%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.21%E -4.00%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.91%E -2.25%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-05 10:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.07%E -2.39%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 10:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 09:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 08:16 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 07:16 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 11:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 10:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.45%E -5.22%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-05 10:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.45%E -5.22%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.46%E -2.58%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-05 10:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -2.39%E -1.09%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -5.02%E -2.92%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-05 11:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -2.39%E -1.09%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -5.02%E -2.92%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-05 11:01 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.73%E -1.73%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.02%E -2.92%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-05 11:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.73%E -1.73%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.02%E -2.92%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-05 11:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -4.18%E -1.95%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.02%E -2.92%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-05 08:16 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -4.18%E -1.95%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.02%E -2.92%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-05 11:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.02%E -2.92%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 11:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.02%E -2.92%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 11:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.73%E -1.73%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.57%E -3.26%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 11:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.57%E -3.26%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-05 11:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.57%E -3.26%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-05 10:56 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.73%E -1.73%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.12%E -3.60%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-05 11:13 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.12%E -3.60%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-05 11:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.12%E -3.60%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-05 11:01 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.12%E -3.60%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-05 11:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.21%E -4.00%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.12%E -3.60%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 11:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.21%E -4.00%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.12%E -3.60%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 11:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.21%E -4.00%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.12%E -3.60%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 11:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.21%E -4.00%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.12%E -3.60%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 11:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -3.73%E -1.73%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.67%E -3.95%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-05 02:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.80%EV -10.45%E -5.22%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -6.67%E -3.95%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-05 11:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.49%E -0.678%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.78%E -4.66%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-05 10:46 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.49%E -0.678%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.78%E -4.66%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-05 04:11 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.78%E -4.66%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 11:11 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.78%E -4.66%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 01:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.78%E -4.66%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 06:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.97%E -2.84%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.78%E -4.66%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 01:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.11%EV -9.55%E -4.73%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.89%EV -8.33%E -5.02%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-05 10:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -3.73%E -1.73%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.88%E -5.38%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-05 11:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.30%EV -11.34%E -5.73%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.70%EV -9.43%E -5.75%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-05 11:02 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00% | 0.4% | 2026-10-05 11:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00% | 0.4% | 2026-10-05 11:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13% | 0.6% | 2026-10-05 11:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27% | 0.9% | 2026-10-05 11:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.35% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.65% | 1.3% | 2026-10-05 11:15 |