The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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California Redwoods v Denver Outlaws

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 19:38 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

California Redwoods (Local)

Prediction 47.23%2.12fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -3.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.34%47.50%46.95%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.002.002.0553.48%49.92%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Denver Outlaws (Visit)

Prediction 52.77%1.90fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.708%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%52.50%53.05%53.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.791.771.8756.50%55.76%56.50%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: California Redwoods (Local): 47.23%; Denver Outlaws (Visit): 52.77%. For Denver Outlaws (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.87, with an expected value of -1.32%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.18%E -1.55%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.02%E -2.79%K -6.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-10 16:25
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.18%E -1.55%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.60%E -3.73%K -8.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 12:24
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.18%E -1.55%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.60%E -3.73%K -8.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 12:30
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.18%E -1.55%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.60%E -3.73%K -8.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 12:34
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.60%E -3.73%K -8.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 16:35
Caesars🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.60%E -3.73%K -8.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-10 14:19
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.54%E -2.77%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.60%E -3.73%K -8.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-11 03:20
FanDuel🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -7.43%E -3.79%K -7.74%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -2.38%E -1.29%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 20:18
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -11.68%E -6.24%K -13.42%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -1.32%E -0.708%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-16 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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