The School of Odds
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South Africa v Australia

Kickoff: 2026-10-19 08:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 15.47%6.46fair odd
EV +8.28%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.114%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.19%15.47%14.85%17.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.256.506.507.0019.05%15.38%15.38%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 36.39%2.75fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.644%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.59%36.39%35.64%38.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.582.552.7040.82%38.82%39.22%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 48.14%2.08fair odd
EV +3.50%
Edge +1.63%
Kelly +3.04%
Growth +0.106%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.72%48.14%49.50%51.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.901.912.1555.56%52.68%52.36%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Africa (Local): 15.47%; Australia (Visit): 36.39%; Draw: 48.14%. For South Africa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.46. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.19%EV +8.28%E +1.18%K +1.38%G +0.114%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -5.38%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.30%EV -13.35%E -7.42%K -16.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-19 07:50
LiveScore Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV +4.42%E +0.654%K +0.768%G +0.034%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -7.20%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.95%EV -7.09%E -3.68%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-19 07:45
Unibet (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV +4.42%E +0.654%K +0.768%G +0.034%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -7.20%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.95%EV -7.09%E -3.68%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-19 07:45
Casumo🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV +4.42%E +0.654%K +0.768%G +0.034%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -7.20%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.95%EV -7.09%E -3.68%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-19 07:45
Grosvenor🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV +4.42%E +0.654%K +0.768%G +0.034%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -7.20%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.95%EV -7.09%E -3.68%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-19 07:45
Virgin Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV +4.42%E +0.654%K +0.768%G +0.034%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -7.20%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.95%EV -7.09%E -3.68%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-19 07:45
ATG (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV +4.42%E +0.654%K +0.768%G +0.034%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -7.20%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.95%EV -7.09%E -3.68%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-19 07:45
Betway🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV +4.42%E +0.654%K +0.768%G +0.034%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -4.65%E -1.77%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -13.35%E -7.42%K -16.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-19 07:45
Unibet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV +0.548%E +0.084%K +0.100%G +0.001%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.85%EV -7.20%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.69%EV -7.09%E -3.68%K -7.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-19 07:45
TAB🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV +0.548%E +0.084%K +0.100%G +0.001%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.38%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.43%EV -8.54%E -4.49%K -9.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-19 07:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV +0.548%E +0.084%K +0.100%G +0.001%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.76%EV -7.20%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.82%EV -7.57%E -3.95%K -8.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 07:50
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +0.548%E +0.084%K +0.100%G +0.001%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.59%EV -1.74%E -0.644%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.04%EV -11.91%E -6.51%K -14.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-19 07:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +0.548%E +0.084%K +0.100%G +0.001%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.59%EV -1.74%E -0.644%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.04%EV -11.91%E -6.51%K -14.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-19 07:45
TABtouch🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV +0.548%E +0.084%K +0.100%G +0.001%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.86%EV -9.02%E -4.77%K -10.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-19 07:45
Neds🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -3.32%E -0.531%K -0.632%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -3.56%E -1.34%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.88%EV -9.98%E -5.34%K -11.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-19 07:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV -3.32%E -0.531%K -0.632%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -3.56%E -1.34%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.88%EV -9.98%E -5.34%K -11.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-19 07:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.85%EV -7.19%E -1.20%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.50%EV -13.35%E -7.42%K -16.69%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-19 07:45
BetRivers🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -18.79%E -3.58%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.37%EV -10.84%E -4.42%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV +3.50%E +1.63%K +3.04%G +0.106%6.4%2026-10-19 07:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.40I 13.51%NM 13.38%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.86%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.76%1.0%2026-10-19 07:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.40I 13.51%NM 13.38%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.86%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.76%1.0%2026-10-19 07:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.40I 13.51%NM 13.38%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.86%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.76%1.0%2026-10-19 07:55