The School of Odds
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Mora IK v Nybro Vikings IF

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 17:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mora IK (Local)

Prediction 45.73%2.19fair odd
EV -0.763%
Edge -0.352%
Kelly -0.652%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.01%45.62%45.75%46.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.022.022.1751.28%49.44%49.50%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nybro Vikings IF (Visit)

Prediction 31.91%3.13fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -0.878%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.71%32.03%31.87%33.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.963.003.0536.36%33.82%33.39%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.36%4.47fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -0.897%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.09%22.35%22.39%22.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.174.204.3025.00%23.95%23.81%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mora IK (Local): 45.73%; Nybro Vikings IF (Visit): 31.91%; Draw: 22.36%. For Mora IK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.17, with an expected value of -0.763%; they did not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.01%EV -0.763%E -0.352%K -0.652%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.51%EV -9.06%E -3.18%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.47%EV -4.97%E -1.17%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-29 18:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.29%EV -5.34%E -2.58%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.42%EV -2.68%E -0.878%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.29%EV -3.86%E -0.897%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-30 15:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.29%EV -5.34%E -2.58%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.42%EV -2.68%E -0.878%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.29%EV -3.86%E -0.897%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-30 15:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.29%EV -5.34%E -2.58%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.42%EV -2.68%E -0.878%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.29%EV -3.86%E -0.897%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-30 15:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.29%EV -5.34%E -2.58%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.42%EV -2.68%E -0.878%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.29%EV -3.86%E -0.897%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-30 15:50
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -4.27%E -1.42%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-30 15:50
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -4.27%E -1.42%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-30 15:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -4.27%E -1.42%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-30 15:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.92%EV -7.62%E -3.77%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -7.46%E -2.57%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -6.09%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 17:05
1xBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.61%EV -9.91%E -5.03%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 30.71%EV -4.59%E -1.54%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.67%EV -9.45%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-30 12:59
TABtouch🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.43%EV -10.37%E -5.29%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -7.46%E -2.57%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -8.33%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-30 15:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.92%EV -10.37%E -5.29%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.58%EV -9.06%E -3.18%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-28 21:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -10.82%E -5.55%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 30.78%EV -5.55%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.50%EV -9.45%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-30 12:54
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.53%EV -10.82%E -5.55%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.28%EV -12.25%E -4.45%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -10.56%E -2.64%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-30 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%5.4%2026-09-30 08:04
Betsson🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%5.4%2026-09-29 18:38
Smarkets◎1.65I 60.61%NM 56.69%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%6.9%2026-09-30 17:00
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%7.2%2026-09-29 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-09-29 16:34
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-09-29 16:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-09-29 16:35
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-09-29 16:40