The School of OddsRoman Safiullin v Novak Djokovic
Head to Head
Option 1: Roman Safiullin (Local)
Odds
4.4022.73%Min
5.0219.94%Mean
5.0020.00%Median
5.8017.24%Max
Consensus probabilities
16.43%6.088Min
20.35%4.913Max
18.25%5.479Mean
17.97%5.563Median
18.05%5.540IQM
18.06%5.538Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 5.80 under the IQM model: 18.05%
EV +4.69%Edge +0.809%Kelly +0.978%Growth +0.046%
Option 2: Novak Djokovic (Visit)
Odds
1.1289.29%Min
1.1586.65%Mean
1.1586.96%Median
1.1884.75%Max
Consensus probabilities
79.65%1.256Min
83.57%1.197Max
81.75%1.223Mean
82.03%1.219Median
81.95%1.220IQM
81.94%1.220Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.18 under the IQM model: 81.95%
EV -3.30%Edge -2.80%Kelly -18.33%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Roman Safiullin (Local) ▼ | Novak Djokovic (Visit) | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet | 5.80I 17.24% NM 16.43%EV +4.69% E +0.809% K +0.978% G +0.046% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 83.57%EV -6.58% E -5.77% K -46.99% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| 1xBet | 5.79I 17.27% NM 16.93%EV +4.51% E +0.780% K +0.942% G +0.043% | 1.18I 84.75% NM 83.07%EV -3.30% E -2.80% K -18.33% G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-07-03 17:55 |
| Coolbet | 5.70I 17.54% NM 17.03%EV +2.89% E +0.507% K +0.615% G +0.018% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 82.97%EV -4.12% E -3.52% K -24.23% G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-03 16:50 |
| FanDuel | 5.70I 17.54% NM 16.79%EV +2.89% E +0.507% K +0.615% G +0.018% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 83.21%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| Betway | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.29%EV -0.720% E -0.131% K -0.160% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.71%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-03 16:25 |
| betfred_uk | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV -0.720% E -0.131% K -0.160% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.83%EV -6.58% E -5.77% K -46.99% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-03 16:25 |
| 888sport | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV -0.720% E -0.131% K -0.160% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.83%EV -6.58% E -5.77% K -46.99% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
| Sky Bet | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV -0.720% E -0.131% K -0.160% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.83%EV -6.58% E -5.77% K -46.99% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| Paddy Power | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV -0.720% E -0.131% K -0.160% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.83%EV -6.58% E -5.77% K -46.99% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| Pinnacle | 5.46I 18.32% NM 17.77%EV -1.44% E -0.264% K -0.323% G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75% NM 82.23%EV -3.30% E -2.80% K -18.33% G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-03 17:55 |
| Winamax (DE) | 5.30I 18.87% NM 17.83%EV -4.33% E -0.817% K -1.01% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.17%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| Fanatics | 5.30I 18.87% NM 17.83%EV -4.33% E -0.817% K -1.01% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.17%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
| Tipico (DE) | 5.30I 18.87% NM 17.83%EV -4.33% E -0.817% K -1.01% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.17%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-03 16:30 |
| DraftKings | 5.26I 19.01% NM 18.07%EV -5.05% E -0.961% K -1.19% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 81.93%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 5.25I 19.05% NM 17.97%EV -5.23% E -0.997% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.03%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
| Betr (AU) | 5.25I 19.05% NM 17.97%EV -5.23% E -0.997% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.03%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
| NordicBet | 5.25I 19.05% NM 17.97%EV -5.23% E -0.997% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.03%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| Betsson | 5.25I 19.05% NM 17.97%EV -5.23% E -0.997% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.03%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| Unibet (UK) | 5.25I 19.05% NM 17.97%EV -5.23% E -0.997% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.03%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
| Codere (IT) | 5.20I 19.23% NM 18.11%EV -6.14% E -1.18% K -1.46% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 81.89%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
| MyBookie.ag | 5.20I 19.23% NM 18.11%EV -6.14% E -1.18% K -1.46% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 81.89%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| theScore Bet | 5.20I 19.23% NM 17.98%EV -6.14% E -1.18% K -1.46% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.02%EV -6.58% E -5.77% K -46.99% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
| GTbets | 5.18I 19.31% NM 18.04%EV -6.50% E -1.25% K -1.55% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 81.96%EV -6.58% E -5.77% K -46.99% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Marathon Bet | 5.15I 19.42% NM 18.38%EV -7.04% E -1.37% K -1.70% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 81.62%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| Fliff | 5.15I 19.42% NM 18.25%EV -7.04% E -1.37% K -1.70% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 81.75%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| NetBet (FR) | 5.10I 19.61% NM 18.40%EV -7.94% E -1.56% K -1.94% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 81.60%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-03 17:55 |
| William Hill | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -9.75% E -1.95% K -2.44% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -4.12% E -3.52% K -24.23% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 17:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -9.75% E -1.95% K -2.44% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -4.12% E -3.52% K -24.23% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -9.75% E -1.95% K -2.44% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -4.12% E -3.52% K -24.23% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Neds | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -9.75% E -1.95% K -2.44% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -4.12% E -3.52% K -24.23% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| BetMGM | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.83%EV -9.75% E -1.95% K -2.44% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 81.17%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Coral | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.70%EV -9.75% E -1.95% K -2.44% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 81.30%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.70%EV -9.75% E -1.95% K -2.44% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 81.30%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| LeoVegas | 4.90I 20.41% NM 18.87%EV -11.55% E -2.36% K -2.96% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 81.13%EV -6.58% E -5.77% K -46.99% G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| PlayUp | 4.85I 20.62% NM 19.44%EV -12.45% E -2.57% K -3.23% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 80.56%EV -4.12% E -3.52% K -24.23% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| Dabble (AU) | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.76%EV -14.26% E -3.00% K -3.80% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 80.24%EV -4.12% E -3.52% K -24.23% G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Bet Victor | 4.75I 21.05% NM 19.49%EV -14.26% E -3.00% K -3.80% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 80.51%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-03 17:39 |
| Unibet | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Casumo | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| BetRivers | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Grosvenor | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| PMU (FR) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| TABtouch | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Bally Bet | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| ATG (SE) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| betPARX | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| Svenska Spel | 4.60I 21.74% NM 20.14%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.86%EV -4.94% E -4.26% K -30.87% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-03 17:40 |
| ReBet | 4.60I 21.74% NM 19.72%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50% NM 80.28%EV -7.40% E -6.55% K -56.90% G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| Betclic (FR) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 19.72%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50% NM 80.28%EV -7.40% E -6.55% K -56.90% G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-03 17:44 |
| Unibet (FR) | 4.60I 21.74% NM 19.44%EV -16.97% E -3.69% K -4.71% G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09% NM 80.56%EV -9.04% E -8.14% K -82.15% G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-03 17:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 4.50I 22.22% NM 20.35%EV -18.77% E -4.17% K -5.36% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 79.65%EV -5.76% E -5.01% K -38.39% G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-03 17:50 |
| Winamax (FR) | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.29%EV -20.58% E -4.68% K -6.05% G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29% NM 79.71%EV -8.22% E -7.34% K -68.47% G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Roman Safiullin (Local) | Novak Djokovic (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 5.40I 18.52% | 1.19I 84.03% | 2.6% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 5.40I 18.52% | 1.19I 84.03% | 2.6% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 5.40I 18.52% | 1.19I 84.03% | 2.6% | 2026-07-03 17:35 |
| Novig | 5.41I 18.48% | 1.17I 85.47% | 4.0% | 2026-07-03 17:50 |
| Matchbook | 5.50I 18.18% | 1.14I 87.72% | 5.9% | 2026-07-03 17:25 |
| Smarkets | 4.40I 22.73% | 1.12I 89.29% | 12.0% | 2026-07-03 17:50 |