The School of OddsSurrey v Sussex
Head to Head
Option 1: Surrey (Local)
Odds
1.4369.93%Min
1.4569.18%Mean
1.4469.44%Median
1.4768.03%Max
Consensus probabilities
64.20%1.558Min
65.95%1.516Max
64.45%1.552Mean
64.36%1.554Median
64.45%1.552IQM
64.45%1.551Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.47 under the IQM model: 64.45%
EV -5.26%Edge -3.58%Kelly -11.19%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Sussex (Visit)
Odds
2.6038.46%Min
2.7136.95%Mean
2.7536.36%Median
2.7736.10%Max
Consensus probabilities
34.05%2.937Min
35.80%2.793Max
35.55%2.813Mean
35.64%2.806Median
35.55%2.813IQM
35.55%2.813Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 2.77 under the IQM model: 35.55%
EV -1.52%Edge -0.550%Kelly -0.860%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Surrey (Local) ▼ | Sussex (Visit) | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.47I 68.03% NM 64.75%EV -5.26% E -3.58% K -11.19% G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04% NM 35.25%EV -4.01% E -1.49% K -2.36% G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-04 23:10 |
| Neds | 1.47I 68.03% NM 64.75%EV -5.26% E -3.58% K -11.19% G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04% NM 35.25%EV -4.01% E -1.49% K -2.36% G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-04 23:09 |
| Betway | 1.45I 68.97% NM 64.20%EV -6.55% E -4.52% K -14.55% G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46% NM 35.80%EV -7.57% E -2.91% K -4.73% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-04 23:45 |
| Sky Bet | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -7.19% E -5.00% K -16.35% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -2.23% E -0.812% K -1.28% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 23:05 |
| Coral | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -7.19% E -5.00% K -16.35% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -2.23% E -0.812% K -1.28% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 23:10 |
| Paddy Power | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -7.19% E -5.00% K -16.35% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -2.23% E -0.812% K -1.28% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 23:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -7.19% E -5.00% K -16.35% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -2.23% E -0.812% K -1.28% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 23:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -7.19% E -5.00% K -16.35% G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -2.23% E -0.812% K -1.28% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 23:19 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.44I 69.44% NM 64.79%EV -7.19% E -5.00% K -16.35% G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74% NM 35.21%EV -5.79% E -2.18% K -3.51% G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-04 23:05 |
| Bet Victor | 1.44I 69.44% NM 64.36%EV -7.19% E -5.00% K -16.35% G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46% NM 35.64%EV -7.57% E -2.91% K -4.73% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 23:09 |
| SportsBet | 1.43I 69.93% NM 65.95%EV -7.84% E -5.48% K -18.23% G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10% NM 34.05%EV -1.52% E -0.550% K -0.860% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-04 23:05 |
Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Surrey (Local) | Sussex (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.45I 68.97% | 2.70I 37.04% | 6.0% | 2026-07-04 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.35I 74.07% | 2.58I 38.76% | 12.8% | 2026-07-05 02:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.35I 74.07% | 2.58I 38.76% | 12.8% | 2026-07-05 02:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.35I 74.07% | 1.50I 66.67% | 40.7% | 2026-07-05 02:25 |