The School of Odds

Lancashire v Derbyshire

2026-07-06 17:30 — T20 Blast

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis)

Option 1: Lancashire (Local)

Odds
1.5066.67%Min
1.5365.41%Mean
1.5365.36%Median
1.5564.52%Max
Consensus probabilities
60.57%1.651Min
62.19%1.608Max
61.35%1.630Mean
61.07%1.637Median
61.32%1.631IQM
61.43%1.628Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.55 under the IQM model: 61.32%

EV -4.95%Edge -3.19%Kelly -9.00%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Derbyshire (Visit)

Odds
2.3542.55%Min
2.4640.60%Mean
2.5040.00%Median
2.5040.00%Max
Consensus probabilities
37.81%2.645Min
39.43%2.536Max
38.65%2.587Mean
38.93%2.569Median
38.68%2.586IQM
38.57%2.592Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.50 under the IQM model: 38.68%

EV -3.31%Edge -1.32%Kelly -2.21%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLancashire (Local) ▼Derbyshire (Visit)MarginUpdated
Neds1.55I 64.52% NM 60.76%EV -4.95% E -3.19% K -9.00% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 39.24%EV -7.18% E -2.99% K -5.13% G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-03 21:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.55I 64.52% NM 60.76%EV -4.95% E -3.19% K -9.00% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 39.24%EV -7.18% E -2.99% K -5.13% G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-03 21:44
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -6.17% E -4.04% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -3.31% E -1.32% K -2.21% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 21:45
Coral1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -6.17% E -4.04% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -3.31% E -1.32% K -2.21% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 21:45
Sky Bet1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -6.17% E -4.04% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -3.31% E -1.32% K -2.21% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 21:45
Paddy Power1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -6.17% E -4.04% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -3.31% E -1.32% K -2.21% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 21:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -6.17% E -4.04% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -3.31% E -1.32% K -2.21% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 21:55
betfred_uk1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -6.17% E -4.04% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -3.31% E -1.32% K -2.21% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 22:20
888sport1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -6.17% E -4.04% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -3.31% E -1.32% K -2.21% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 22:20
William Hill1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV -6.17% E -4.04% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -3.31% E -1.32% K -2.21% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 22:45
SportsBet1.53I 65.36% NM 61.65%EV -6.17% E -4.04% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.46I 40.65% NM 38.35%EV -4.86% E -1.97% K -3.33% G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-03 21:45
Unibet (UK)1.53I 65.36% NM 61.07%EV -6.17% E -4.04% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 38.93%EV -7.18% E -2.99% K -5.13% G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-03 21:45
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36% NM 60.87%EV -6.17% E -4.04% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.38I 42.02% NM 39.13%EV -7.95% E -3.34% K -5.76% G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-03 21:44
Betway1.53I 65.36% NM 60.57%EV -6.17% E -4.04% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 39.43%EV -9.11% E -3.88% K -6.75% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-03 23:00
Betsson1.52I 65.79% NM 62.19%EV -6.79% E -4.47% K -13.05% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.81%EV -3.31% E -1.32% K -2.21% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-03 22:20
NordicBet1.52I 65.79% NM 62.19%EV -6.79% E -4.47% K -13.05% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.81%EV -3.31% E -1.32% K -2.21% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-03 22:20
TAB1.52I 65.79% NM 62.19%EV -6.79% E -4.47% K -13.05% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.81%EV -3.31% E -1.32% K -2.21% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-03 22:29
Betr (AU)1.50I 66.67% NM 62.03%EV -8.01% E -5.34% K -16.03% G +0.000%2.45I 40.82% NM 37.97%EV -5.24% E -2.14% K -3.62% G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-03 22:20
Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLancashire (Local)Derbyshire (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.55I 64.52%2.40I 41.67%6.2%2026-07-03 21:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.50I 66.67%2.52I 39.68%6.3%2026-07-03 22:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.50I 66.67%2.52I 39.68%6.3%2026-07-03 22:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.50I 66.67%1.50I 66.67%33.3%2026-07-03 22:10