Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast Suns

2026-07-11 10:10 — AFL

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis)

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Option 1: Adelaide Crows (Local)

Odds

1.3275.76%Min

1.4071.37%Mean

1.4071.43%Median

1.4469.44%Max

Consensus probabilities

65.63%1.524Min

67.82%1.475Max

66.76%1.498Mean

66.59%1.502Median

66.69%1.499IQM

66.78%1.498Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.44 under the IQM model: 66.69%

EV -3.96%Edge -2.75%Kelly -9.00%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Gold Coast Suns (Visit)

Odds

2.6038.46%Min

2.8135.58%Mean

2.8535.09%Median

2.9533.90%Max

Consensus probabilities

32.18%3.107Min

34.37%2.910Max

33.24%3.008Mean

33.41%2.993Median

33.31%3.002IQM

33.22%3.010Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.95 under the IQM model: 33.31%

EV -1.74%Edge -0.591%Kelly -0.895%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Adelaide Crows (Local) ▼	Gold Coast Suns (Visit)	Margin	Updated
Paddy Power	1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -3.96% E -2.75% K -9.00% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -8.41% E -3.06% K -4.80% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-05 04:35
Grosvenor	1.43I 69.93% NM 66.59%EV -4.63% E -3.24% K -10.76% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 33.41%EV -5.08% E -1.78% K -2.74% G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-05 04:35
Casumo	1.43I 69.93% NM 66.59%EV -4.63% E -3.24% K -10.76% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 33.41%EV -5.08% E -1.78% K -2.74% G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-05 04:35
TABtouch	1.43I 69.93% NM 66.59%EV -4.63% E -3.24% K -10.76% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 33.41%EV -5.08% E -1.78% K -2.74% G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-05 04:35
Unibet (NL)	1.43I 69.93% NM 66.59%EV -4.63% E -3.24% K -10.76% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 33.41%EV -5.08% E -1.78% K -2.74% G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-05 04:35
Coolbet	1.43I 69.93% NM 66.59%EV -4.63% E -3.24% K -10.76% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 33.41%EV -5.08% E -1.78% K -2.74% G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-05 05:10
Unibet	1.43I 69.93% NM 65.79%EV -4.63% E -3.24% K -10.76% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 34.21%EV -8.41% E -3.06% K -4.80% G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-05 04:35
TAB	1.40I 71.43% NM 67.82%EV -6.63% E -4.74% K -16.57% G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90% NM 32.18%EV -1.74% E -0.591% K -0.895% G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-05 04:35
Neds	1.40I 71.43% NM 67.44%EV -6.63% E -4.74% K -16.57% G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48% NM 32.56%EV -3.41% E -1.18% K -1.79% G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-05 04:35
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.40I 71.43% NM 67.44%EV -6.63% E -4.74% K -16.57% G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48% NM 32.56%EV -3.41% E -1.18% K -1.79% G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-05 04:35
PlayUp	1.40I 71.43% NM 67.44%EV -6.63% E -4.74% K -16.57% G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48% NM 32.56%EV -3.41% E -1.18% K -1.79% G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-05 04:35
DraftKings	1.39I 71.94% NM 67.22%EV -7.30% E -5.25% K -18.71% G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09% NM 32.78%EV -5.08% E -1.78% K -2.74% G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-07-05 04:35
Marathon Bet	1.39I 71.94% NM 66.90%EV -7.30% E -5.25% K -18.71% G +0.000%	2.81I 35.59% NM 33.10%EV -6.41% E -2.28% K -3.54% G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-05 04:35
NordicBet	1.38I 72.46% NM 66.59%EV -7.96% E -5.77% K -20.96% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 33.41%EV -8.41% E -3.06% K -4.80% G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-07-05 04:35
Betsson	1.38I 72.46% NM 66.59%EV -7.96% E -5.77% K -20.96% G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36% NM 33.41%EV -8.41% E -3.06% K -4.80% G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-07-05 04:35
Unibet (FR)	1.34I 74.63% NM 65.99%EV -10.63% E -7.93% K -31.27% G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46% NM 34.01%EV -13.40% E -5.15% K -8.38% G +0.000%	13.1%	2026-07-05 04:35
NetBet (FR)	1.32I 75.76% NM 66.50%EV -11.97% E -9.06% K -37.39% G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17% NM 33.50%EV -12.74% E -4.86% K -7.86% G +0.000%	13.9%	2026-07-05 04:40

Margin = book's overround · I = implied probability · NM = no-margin (de-vigged) probability · EV = expected value · E = edge · K = Kelly fraction · G = bankroll growth.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Adelaide Crows (Local)	Gold Coast Suns (Visit)	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.37I 72.99%	2.92I 34.25%	7.2%	2026-07-05 04:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.37I 72.99%	2.92I 34.25%	7.2%	2026-07-05 04:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.37I 72.99%	2.92I 34.25%	7.2%	2026-07-05 04:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas	1.40I 71.43%	2.80I 35.71%	80.00I 1.25%	8.4%	2026-07-05 04:35