The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Malawi v Zambia

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 07:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malawi (Local)

Prediction 64.99%1.54fair odd
EV -0.561%
Edge -0.366%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.87%64.36%64.99%66.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.461.471.5369.93%68.29%68.03%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zambia (Visit)

Prediction 35.01%2.86fair odd
EV -0.230%
Edge -0.081%
Kelly -0.124%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.41%35.64%35.01%39.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.692.702.8542.02%37.19%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malawi (Local): 64.99%; Zambia (Visit): 35.01%. For Zambia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.85, with an expected value of -0.230%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -0.561%E -0.366%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -16.68%E -7.01%K -12.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 09:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.11%EV -2.51%E -1.67%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%EV -6.18%E -2.31%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-14 06:44
TAB🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.81%E -2.57%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.98%E -3.45%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 06:33
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.46%E -3.03%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.48%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-13 23:19
Neds🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.46%E -3.03%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.48%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-13 23:20
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.41%E -4.45%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.73%E -1.36%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-13 23:19
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -7.06%E -4.94%K -16.42%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -0.230%E -0.081%K -0.124%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-13 15:29
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.03%EV -7.06%E -4.94%K -16.42%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%EV -2.68%E -0.964%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-13 23:19
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.87%EV -7.06%E -4.94%K -16.42%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.13%EV -3.38%E -1.22%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-13 23:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 63.94%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.06%4.3%2026-08-14 06:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 63.94%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.06%4.3%2026-08-14 06:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 63.94%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.06%4.3%2026-08-14 06:45

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