The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Welsh Fire v Trent Rockets

Kickoff: 2026-07-29 10:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Welsh Fire (Local)

Prediction 40.75%2.45fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%40.90%40.57%42.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.222.332.322.3845.05%42.94%43.10%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Trent Rockets (Visit)

Prediction 59.25%1.69fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -2.48%
Kelly -6.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.96%59.10%59.43%60.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.581.581.6264.52%63.27%63.49%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Welsh Fire (Local): 40.75%; Trent Rockets (Visit): 59.25%. For Welsh Fire (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.38, with an expected value of -3.01%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.01%E -1.27%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.98%E -4.44%K -12.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 10:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.01%E -1.27%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.98%E -4.44%K -12.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 10:05
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.01%E -1.27%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.98%E -4.44%K -12.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 10:05
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.01%E -1.27%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.98%E -4.44%K -12.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 10:20
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -3.42%E -1.44%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -6.98%E -4.44%K -12.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-29 10:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -3.42%E -1.44%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -6.98%E -4.44%K -12.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-29 10:25
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.24%E -1.80%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.20%E -3.25%K -8.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 10:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.24%E -1.80%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.39%E -4.04%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-29 10:25
SportsBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.85%EV -4.64%E -1.98%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.15%EV -8.16%E -5.27%K -14.84%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-29 10:25
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.27%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.02%E -2.48%K -6.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-29 10:19
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.27%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.61%E -2.86%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-29 10:20
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.27%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.39%E -4.04%K -11.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-29 10:20
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.27%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.39%E -4.04%K -11.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-29 10:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.27%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.39%E -4.04%K -11.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-29 10:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.27%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.39%E -4.04%K -11.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-29 10:25
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.27%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.98%E -4.44%K -12.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-29 10:19
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.27%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.98%E -4.44%K -12.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-29 10:20
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.04%EV -9.53%E -4.29%K -7.81%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.96%EV -4.61%E -2.86%K -7.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-29 10:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.57%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.43%0.3%2026-07-29 10:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%0.7%2026-07-29 10:25
Smarkets◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05%0.9%2026-07-29 10:25

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