The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Welsh Fire v London Spirit

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 10:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Welsh Fire (Local)

Prediction 52.91%1.89fair odd
EV -4.76%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -5.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.52%52.94%52.91%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.781.791.8057.80%56.14%55.87%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

London Spirit (Visit)

Prediction 47.09%2.12fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.530%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%47.06%47.09%47.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.002.002.1050.51%49.90%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Welsh Fire (Local): 52.91%; London Spirit (Visit): 47.09%. For London Spirit (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -1.11%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.76%E -2.64%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.82%E -2.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 10:25
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.76%E -2.64%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.82%E -2.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 10:25
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.76%E -2.64%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.82%E -2.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 10:05
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.76%E -2.64%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.82%E -2.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 10:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.76%E -2.64%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.82%E -2.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 10:04
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.76%E -2.64%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.82%E -2.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 09:59
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.76%E -2.64%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.82%E -2.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 10:00
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.76%E -2.64%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.82%E -2.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 10:24
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -5.29%E -2.95%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -6.76%E -3.42%K -6.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 10:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -5.29%E -2.95%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -6.76%E -3.42%K -6.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 10:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -5.29%E -2.95%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -6.76%E -3.42%K -6.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 10:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.82%E -3.27%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -5.82%E -2.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-12 10:24
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -6.88%E -3.91%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -5.82%E -2.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-12 10:25
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.94%EV -6.88%E -3.91%K -9.05%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.06%EV -6.76%E -3.42%K -6.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-12 10:24
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.41%E -4.23%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.82%E -2.91%K -5.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-12 10:10
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.46%E -4.89%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.11%E -0.530%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 10:25
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -8.46%E -4.89%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -3.47%E -1.69%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 10:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77%0.2%2026-08-12 10:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%0.5%2026-08-12 10:25
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.27%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.73%1.2%2026-08-12 10:25