The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Southern Brave v Manchester Super Giants

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Brave (Local)

Prediction 52.74%1.90fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.95%52.88%52.63%55.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.771.801.8558.82%56.41%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manchester Super Giants (Visit)

Prediction 47.26%2.12fair odd
EV -0.745%
Edge -0.355%
Kelly -0.678%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.74%47.12%47.37%48.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.022.002.1051.28%49.56%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Southern Brave (Local): 52.74%; Manchester Super Giants (Visit): 47.26%. For Manchester Super Giants (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -0.745%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -2.44%E -1.32%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -5.47%E -2.74%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 13:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.24%EV -4.55%E -2.51%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -6.42%E -3.24%K -6.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 13:05
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.47%E -2.74%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 12:59
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.47%E -2.74%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 12:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.47%E -2.74%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 12:59
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.47%E -2.74%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 13:00
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.47%E -2.74%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 12:59
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.47%E -2.74%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 12:49
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.47%E -2.74%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 12:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.08%E -2.82%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.47%E -2.74%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 12:50
SportsBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -6.13%E -3.44%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -7.83%E -4.02%K -8.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 13:05
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.71%E -4.41%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.11%E -1.52%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 13:19
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.71%E -4.41%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.47%E -2.74%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 13:18
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.71%E -4.41%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.47%E -2.74%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 13:18
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%EV -9.29%E -5.40%K -12.91%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.74%EV -3.58%E -1.76%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 12:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -10.35%E -6.09%K -14.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -0.745%E -0.355%K -0.678%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 13:14
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -10.35%E -6.09%K -14.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -0.745%E -0.355%K -0.678%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 13:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -10.35%E -6.09%K -14.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -0.745%E -0.355%K -0.678%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 13:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13%0.4%2026-08-08 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13%0.4%2026-08-08 13:25
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.57%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.43%2.6%2026-08-08 13:25