The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Southern Brave v Birmingham Phoenix

Kickoff: 2026-07-30 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Brave (Local)

Prediction 57.24%1.75fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -6.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.77%57.49%57.14%58.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.641.641.6763.29%61.00%60.98%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Birmingham Phoenix (Visit)

Prediction 42.76%2.34fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -2.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.04%42.51%42.86%43.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.212.202.2745.87%45.32%45.45%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Southern Brave (Local): 57.24%; Birmingham Phoenix (Visit): 42.76%. For Birmingham Phoenix (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.27, with an expected value of -2.94%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.40%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.94%E -2.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 13:39
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.40%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.94%E -2.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 13:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.40%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.94%E -2.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 13:45
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.40%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.94%E -2.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 13:45
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.40%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.94%E -2.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 13:24
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.40%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.94%E -2.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 13:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.40%E -2.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.94%E -2.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 13:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -4.97%E -3.00%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -6.79%E -3.12%K -5.76%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-30 13:44
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.55%E -3.36%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.94%E -2.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-30 13:45
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.22%EV -6.69%E -4.11%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -6.79%E -3.12%K -5.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-30 13:45
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.26%E -4.48%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.80%E -1.69%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-30 13:53
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.26%E -4.48%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.80%E -1.69%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-30 13:55
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -7.26%E -4.48%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -4.66%E -2.09%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-30 13:55
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.84%E -4.87%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.94%E -2.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-30 13:40
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.84%E -4.87%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.94%E -2.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-30 13:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%EV -7.84%E -4.87%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -6.79%E -3.12%K -5.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-30 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%EV -7.84%E -4.87%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -6.79%E -3.12%K -5.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-30 13:55
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -9.55%E -6.05%K -16.47%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.04%EV -2.94%E -1.30%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-30 13:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 58.39%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.61%0.1%2026-07-30 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-07-30 13:50
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%2.3%2026-07-30 13:50

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.