The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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MI London v London Spirit

Kickoff: 2026-07-29 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

MI London (Local)

Prediction 40.43%2.47fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.13%40.49%40.51%42.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.222.332.372.3845.05%42.83%42.19%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

London Spirit (Visit)

Prediction 59.57%1.68fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -5.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.92%59.51%59.49%60.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.571.6265.36%63.34%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MI London (Local): 40.43%; London Spirit (Visit): 59.57%. For London Spirit (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.62, with an expected value of -3.49%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.79%E -1.59%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 13:50
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.79%E -1.59%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 13:50
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.79%E -1.59%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 13:50
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.79%E -1.59%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 13:40
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.79%E -1.59%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 13:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.79%E -1.59%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 13:40
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -3.79%E -1.59%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -8.85%E -5.79%K -16.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-29 13:49
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -3.79%E -1.59%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -8.85%E -5.79%K -16.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-29 13:50
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -4.19%E -1.77%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-29 13:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -4.19%E -1.77%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-29 13:40
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.00%E -2.13%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.68%E -2.93%K -7.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 13:40
SportsBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.46%EV -6.62%E -2.86%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 13:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.02%E -3.05%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.68%E -2.93%K -7.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-29 13:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -9.04%E -4.02%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.09%E -2.54%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-29 13:55
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -9.04%E -4.02%K -7.23%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.09%E -2.54%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-29 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -9.85%E -4.42%K -8.01%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -3.49%E -2.15%K -5.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-29 13:50
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.04%EV -10.25%E -4.62%K -8.40%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.96%EV -4.09%E -2.54%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-29 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61%0.2%2026-07-29 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%0.6%2026-07-29 13:55
Smarkets◎2.32I 43.10%NM 39.11%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.89%10.2%2026-07-29 13:55

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