The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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London Spirit v MI London

Kickoff: 2026-08-06 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

London Spirit (Local)

Prediction 62.03%1.61fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -3.32%
Kelly -9.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.07%62.03%62.03%63.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.501.501.5368.03%66.47%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MI London (Visit)

Prediction 37.97%2.63fair odd
EV -0.151%
Edge -0.058%
Kelly -0.093%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.12%37.97%37.97%38.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.552.582.6341.67%39.19%38.76%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: London Spirit (Local): 62.03%; MI London (Visit): 37.97%. For MI London (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.634. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.630, with an expected value of -0.151%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.09%E -3.32%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.09%E -2.03%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 13:20
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.09%E -3.32%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.09%E -2.03%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 13:34
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.09%E -3.32%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.09%E -2.03%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 13:35
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.09%E -3.32%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.09%E -2.03%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 13:19
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.09%E -3.32%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.88%E -3.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 13:43
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.09%E -3.32%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.88%E -3.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 13:44
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -6.95%E -4.63%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -0.151%E -0.058%K -0.093%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-06 13:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -6.95%E -4.63%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -0.151%E -0.058%K -0.093%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-06 13:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.95%E -4.63%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -0.531%E -0.203%K -0.328%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 13:45
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.95%E -4.63%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -0.531%E -0.203%K -0.328%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 13:45
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.95%E -4.63%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -0.531%E -0.203%K -0.328%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 13:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.95%E -4.63%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.19%E -1.25%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-06 13:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -8.19%E -5.53%K -17.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -1.29%E -0.496%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.81%E -5.99%K -18.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.29%E -0.496%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 13:50
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.81%E -5.99%K -18.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.29%E -0.496%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 13:50
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.52%EV -8.81%E -5.99%K -18.74%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.48%EV -2.81%E -1.10%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-06 13:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-08-06 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-08-06 13:55
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.21%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.79%1.4%2026-08-06 13:55