The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Birmingham Phoenix v Welsh Fire

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Birmingham Phoenix (Local)

Prediction 49.73%2.01fair odd
EV -0.540%
Edge -0.270%
Kelly -0.540%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%49.37%49.73%50.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.941.912.0054.35%51.66%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Welsh Fire (Visit)

Prediction 50.27%1.99fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.33%50.63%50.27%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.861.831.9555.56%53.88%54.64%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Birmingham Phoenix (Local): 49.73%; Welsh Fire (Visit): 50.27%. For Birmingham Phoenix (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -0.540%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.540%E -0.270%K -0.540%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.51%E -5.29%K -11.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 09:44
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.540%E -0.270%K -0.540%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.51%E -5.29%K -11.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 09:49
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.540%E -0.270%K -0.540%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.51%E -5.29%K -11.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 09:45
TAB🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.540%E -0.270%K -0.540%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.51%E -5.29%K -11.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 09:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -2.03%E -1.03%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -9.51%E -5.29%K -11.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 09:55
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -2.03%E -1.03%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -9.51%E -5.29%K -11.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 09:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -3.03%E -1.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -8.51%E -4.67%K -10.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 09:54
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.03%E -1.55%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -9.51%E -5.29%K -11.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-01 09:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.02%E -2.63%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.98%E -2.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 09:25
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.02%E -2.63%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.98%E -2.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 09:24
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.02%E -2.63%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.98%E -2.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 09:25
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.02%E -2.63%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.98%E -2.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 09:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.02%E -2.63%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.98%E -2.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 09:24
Bet Victor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.02%E -2.63%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.01%E -4.37%K -9.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 09:54
Betway🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -5.51%E -2.90%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -1.97%E -1.01%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-01 09:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -7.01%E -3.75%K -8.05%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -3.98%E -2.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 09:24
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.67%EV -8.50%E -4.62%K -10.12%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.33%EV -4.99%E -2.64%K -5.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-01 09:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%0.4%2026-08-01 09:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%0.4%2026-08-01 09:55
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%2.4%2026-08-01 09:55

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