The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Birmingham Phoenix v Sunrisers Leeds

Kickoff: 2026-08-07 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Birmingham Phoenix (Local)

Prediction 36.89%2.71fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.87%37.43%36.59%40.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.552.602.6343.10%39.17%38.46%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sunrisers Leeds (Visit)

Prediction 63.11%1.58fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.993%
Kelly -2.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.79%62.57%63.41%64.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.501.501.5668.49%66.54%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Birmingham Phoenix (Local): 36.89%; Sunrisers Leeds (Visit): 63.11%. For Sunrisers Leeds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.56, with an expected value of -1.55%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -2.98%E -1.13%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.34%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-07 13:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -2.98%E -1.13%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.34%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-07 13:25
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.35%E -1.28%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.34%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-07 13:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.35%E -1.28%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.34%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-07 13:25
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.35%E -1.28%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.34%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-07 13:24
SportsBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.87%EV -3.72%E -1.42%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.13%EV -7.86%E -5.38%K -17.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 13:55
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.09%E -1.57%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.34%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 13:55
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.09%E -1.57%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.34%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 13:55
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.09%E -1.57%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.34%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 13:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.09%E -1.57%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.60%E -4.46%K -13.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 13:55
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.77%E -3.11%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.44%E -2.25%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 13:40
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -7.77%E -3.11%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.07%E -2.68%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-07 13:50
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.77%E -3.11%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.34%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.77%E -3.11%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.34%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 13:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.77%E -3.11%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.34%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 13:50
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.77%E -3.11%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.34%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 13:50
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.77%E -3.11%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.34%E -3.56%K -10.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 13:50
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -14.41%E -6.21%K -10.92%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -1.55%E -0.993%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 13:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%0.5%2026-08-07 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%0.5%2026-08-07 13:40
Smarkets◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.00%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.00%2.1%2026-08-07 13:55