The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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MI London v Sunrisers Leeds

Kickoff: 2026-07-21 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

MI London (Local)

Prediction 56.38%1.77fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.42%56.30%56.70%57.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.671.671.7460.98%59.83%59.88%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sunrisers Leeds (Visit)

Prediction 43.62%2.29fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.75%43.70%43.30%45.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.032.162.182.2149.26%46.23%45.87%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MI London (Local): 56.38%; Sunrisers Leeds (Visit): 43.62%. For MI London (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -1.89%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -1.89%E -1.09%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -7.53%E -3.55%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-21 14:30
BetUS🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.42%EV -4.15%E -2.44%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.58%EV -11.46%E -5.65%K -11.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-21 17:15
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -4.71%E -2.79%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -8.41%E -4.00%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-21 17:00
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.27%E -3.14%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.05%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-21 17:15
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.27%E -3.14%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.05%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-21 17:15
TAB🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.27%E -3.14%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.23%E -2.90%K -5.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 17:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.27%E -3.14%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.23%E -2.90%K -5.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 17:20
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.27%E -3.14%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.23%E -2.90%K -5.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 17:20
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.84%E -3.50%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.05%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 17:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.84%E -3.50%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.05%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.84%E -3.50%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.05%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 17:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.84%E -3.50%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.05%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 17:15
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.84%E -3.50%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.05%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 17:14
Casumo🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.84%E -3.50%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.05%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 17:10
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.84%E -3.50%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.05%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 17:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.84%E -3.50%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.05%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 17:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -6.97%E -4.22%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -3.61%E -1.63%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-21 17:10
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.97%E -4.22%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.23%E -2.90%K -5.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 17:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.12%EV -6.97%E -4.22%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 43.88%EV -7.97%E -3.78%K -7.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-21 17:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.97%E -4.22%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.41%E -4.00%K -7.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-21 17:20
SportsBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.84%EV -7.53%E -4.59%K -11.76%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.16%EV -5.79%E -2.68%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-21 17:20
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.84%EV -7.53%E -4.59%K -11.76%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.16%EV -5.79%E -2.68%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-21 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%0.5%2026-07-21 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%0.5%2026-07-21 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%0.5%2026-07-21 17:25
Matchbook◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%0.5%2026-07-21 17:25