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MI London v London Spirit
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
MI London (Local)
Prediction 52.35%1.91fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.70%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.23%52.80%52.02%56.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.801.801.8560.61%55.42%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
London Spirit (Visit)
Prediction 47.65%2.10fair odd
EV +2.44%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +2.12%
Growth +0.052%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.42%47.20%47.98%48.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.981.962.1553.19%50.61%51.02%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MI London (Local): 52.35%; London Spirit (Visit): 47.65%. For London Spirit (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.10. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.44%.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -13.62%E -8.25%K -20.95%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +2.44%E +1.14%K +2.12%G +0.052% | 7.1% | 2026-07-29 15:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -10.48%E -6.13%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV -0.416%E -0.199%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-29 17:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -6.29%E -3.51%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -2.80%E -1.37%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.15%E -1.70%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.70%E -2.35%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.70%E -2.35%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 17:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.70%E -2.35%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 17:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.70%E -2.35%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.70%E -2.35%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 17:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.70%E -2.35%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.70%E -2.35%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 17:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.70%E -2.35%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 17:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.70%E -2.35%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 17:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.70%E -2.35%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-29 17:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.20%E -2.29%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.66%E -2.86%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.66%E -2.86%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.66%E -2.86%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -3.67%E -2.00%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -6.61%E -3.37%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -3.67%E -2.00%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -6.61%E -3.37%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -3.67%E -2.00%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -6.61%E -3.37%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.15%E -1.70%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.09%E -3.63%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-29 17:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.15%E -1.70%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.09%E -3.63%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-29 17:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.20%E -2.29%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.09%E -3.63%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.20%E -2.29%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.09%E -3.63%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.20%E -2.29%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.09%E -3.63%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.20%E -2.29%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.09%E -3.63%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.09%E -3.63%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-29 17:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -4.72%E -2.59%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -7.56%E -3.90%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-29 17:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -7.56%E -3.90%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-29 17:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.01%EV -6.29%E -3.51%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.99%EV -7.56%E -3.90%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -6.81%E -3.83%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -8.04%E -4.17%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.99%E -4.71%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-29 17:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.77%E -3.20%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.99%E -4.71%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-29 17:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.23%EV -6.29%E -3.51%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.77%EV -10.42%E -5.54%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 52.00% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 48.00% | 0.2% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 0.4% | 2026-07-29 17:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 0.4% | 2026-07-29 17:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 0.7% | 2026-07-29 17:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83% | 2.5% | 2026-07-29 17:20 |
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