Language:English
Birmingham Phoenix v Sunrisers Leeds
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Birmingham Phoenix (Local)
Prediction 38.61%2.59fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -0.916%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.53%38.72%38.63%40.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.412.402.5343.48%41.48%41.67%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sunrisers Leeds (Visit)
Prediction 61.39%1.63fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.96%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.80%61.28%61.37%62.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.561.571.6067.11%64.21%63.69%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Birmingham Phoenix (Local): 38.61%; Sunrisers Leeds (Visit): 61.39%. For Sunrisers Leeds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.60, with an expected value of -1.78%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -2.32%E -0.916%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -6.69%E -4.40%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 14:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.48%E -1.39%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.62%E -2.30%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.48%E -1.39%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.62%E -2.30%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.48%E -1.39%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.62%E -2.30%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.48%E -1.39%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.07%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 21:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.48%E -1.39%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.07%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 21:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.48%E -1.39%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.07%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 14:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.41%E -2.21%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.23%E -2.71%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.41%E -2.21%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.91%E -5.28%K -15.83%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-07 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.69%EV -5.79%E -2.37%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.31%EV -5.46%E -3.54%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-07 14:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 37.91%EV -5.79%E -2.37%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.09%EV -8.53%E -5.72%K -17.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-07 16:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.89%EV -6.56%E -2.71%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.11%EV -5.46%E -3.54%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-07 17:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.68%EV -6.95%E -2.88%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.32%EV -6.69%E -4.40%K -12.86%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -7.34%E -3.06%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -1.78%E -1.11%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -7.34%E -3.06%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -1.78%E -1.11%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -7.34%E -3.06%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.00%E -1.90%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-07 17:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -7.34%E -3.06%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.00%E -1.90%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-07 17:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.34%E -3.06%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.62%E -2.30%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 17:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.34%E -3.06%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.23%E -2.71%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 17:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.00%E -1.90%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.00%E -1.90%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.00%E -1.90%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.62%E -2.30%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-07 17:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.62%E -2.30%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.62%E -2.30%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-07 17:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.62%E -2.30%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.62%E -2.30%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.62%E -2.30%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.62%E -2.30%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.11%E -3.41%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.62%E -2.30%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-07 17:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -9.27%E -3.94%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -3.00%E -1.90%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 17:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.27%E -3.94%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -4.23%E -2.71%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 17:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -9.27%E -3.94%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -4.84%E -3.13%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 17:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -11.20%E -4.87%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.07%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-07 17:09 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -11.20%E -4.87%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.07%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-07 17:28 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-08-07 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-08-07 17:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-08-07 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 17:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98% | 2.5% | 2026-08-07 17:25 |