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Zimbabwe v Bangladesh

Kickoff: 2026-06-30 07:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zimbabwe (Local)

Prediction 85.88%1.16fair odd
EV -7.25%
Edge -6.71%
Kelly -90.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.41%85.88%85.88%88.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.071.081.0895.24%93.10%92.59%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bangladesh (Visit)

Prediction 11.19%8.93fair odd
EV +11.94%
Edge +1.19%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.159%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.47%11.19%11.19%11.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.008.598.5010.0012.50%11.64%11.76%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 2.92%34.20fair odd
EV +95.89%
Edge +1.43%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +1.39%

assuming max odds 67.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.41%2.92%2.92%4.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0054.3561.0067.004.76%1.84%1.64%1.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zimbabwe (Local): 85.88%; Bangladesh (Visit): 11.19%; Draw: 2.92%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 34.20. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 67.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +95.89%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.48%EV -7.25%E -6.71%K -90.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.11%EV -4.85%E -0.570%K -0.646%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.41%EV +95.89%E +1.43%K +1.45%G +1.39%5.8%2026-06-29 15:10
Grosvenor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.48%EV -7.25%E -6.71%K -90.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.11%EV -4.85%E -0.570%K -0.646%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.41%EV +95.89%E +1.43%K +1.45%G +1.39%5.8%2026-06-29 15:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.48%EV -7.25%E -6.71%K -90.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.11%EV -4.85%E -0.570%K -0.646%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.41%EV +95.89%E +1.43%K +1.45%G +1.39%5.8%2026-06-29 15:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.48%EV -7.25%E -6.71%K -90.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.11%EV -4.85%E -0.570%K -0.646%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.41%EV +95.89%E +1.43%K +1.45%G +1.39%5.8%2026-06-29 15:10
Casumo🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.48%EV -7.25%E -6.71%K -90.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.11%EV -4.85%E -0.570%K -0.646%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.41%EV +95.89%E +1.43%K +1.45%G +1.39%5.8%2026-06-29 15:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.48%EV -7.25%E -6.71%K -90.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.11%EV -4.85%E -0.570%K -0.646%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.41%EV +95.89%E +1.43%K +1.45%G +1.39%5.8%2026-06-29 15:10
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.35%EV -7.25%E -6.71%K -90.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -4.85%E -0.570%K -0.646%G +0.000%61.00I 1.64%NM 1.55%EV +78.35%E +1.28%K +1.31%G +1.02%6.0%2026-06-29 15:10
BetRivers🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.35%EV -7.25%E -6.71%K -90.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -4.85%E -0.570%K -0.646%G +0.000%61.00I 1.64%NM 1.55%EV +78.35%E +1.28%K +1.31%G +1.02%6.0%2026-06-29 15:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.46%EV -8.11%E -7.58%K -115.81%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -4.85%E -0.570%K -0.646%G +0.000%61.00I 1.64%NM 1.53%EV +78.35%E +1.28%K +1.31%G +1.02%6.9%2026-06-29 15:10
TABtouch🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.97%EV -8.97%E -8.46%K -149.42%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -10.44%E -1.31%K -1.49%G +0.000%61.00I 1.64%NM 1.51%EV +78.35%E +1.28%K +1.31%G +1.02%8.5%2026-06-29 15:10
LeoVegas🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.07%EV -9.82%E -9.36%K -196.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.43%EV -10.44%E -1.31%K -1.49%G +0.000%61.00I 1.64%NM 1.50%EV +78.35%E +1.28%K +1.31%G +1.02%9.4%2026-06-29 15:10
Paddy Power🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.48%EV -8.11%E -7.58%K -115.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV +11.94%E +1.19%K +1.33%G +0.159%46.00I 2.17%NM 2.06%EV +34.49%E +0.750%K +0.766%G +0.264%5.6%2026-06-30 07:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.08%EV -8.11%E -7.58%K -115.81%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.65%EV -2.05%E -0.234%K -0.264%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.27%EV +19.87%E +0.485%K +0.497%G +0.099%7.3%2026-06-30 07:09
Neds🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.08%EV -8.11%E -7.58%K -115.81%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.65%EV -2.05%E -0.234%K -0.264%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.27%EV +19.87%E +0.485%K +0.497%G +0.099%7.3%2026-06-30 07:09
TAB🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.82%EV -7.25%E -6.71%K -90.60%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.42%EV +0.750%E +0.083%K +0.094%G +0.001%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.76%EV -0.593%E -0.017%K -0.018%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-30 04:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.82%EV -7.25%E -6.71%K -90.60%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.42%EV +0.750%E +0.083%K +0.094%G +0.001%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.76%EV -0.593%E -0.017%K -0.018%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-29 21:50
Betway🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.41%EV -8.11%E -7.58%K -115.81%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -10.44%E -1.31%K -1.49%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30%EV -38.60%E -1.84%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 07:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.99%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.94%48.00I 2.08%NM 2.07%0.6%2026-06-30 07:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.99%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.94%48.00I 2.08%NM 2.07%0.6%2026-06-30 07:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.31%48.00I 2.08%NM 2.06%1.0%2026-06-30 07:19

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%4.9%2026-06-29 23:39