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West Indies v Sri Lanka

Kickoff: 2026-07-06 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Indies (Local)

Prediction 12.96%7.71fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -0.369%
Kelly -0.425%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.40%12.96%12.96%13.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.067.007.5014.81%14.16%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sri Lanka (Visit)

Prediction 15.65%6.39fair odd
EV -6.13%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.50%15.65%15.65%15.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.805.986.006.0017.24%16.71%16.67%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 71.39%1.40fair odd
EV -5.05%
Edge -3.80%
Kelly -15.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.59%71.39%71.39%72.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.321.331.3377.52%75.71%75.19%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: West Indies (Local): 12.96%; Sri Lanka (Visit): 15.65%; Draw: 71.39%. For West Indies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 7.50, with an expected value of -2.77%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betway🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -2.77%E -0.369%K -0.425%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -6.13%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -7.19%E -5.53%K -23.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-06 11:14
Paddy Power🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -2.77%E -0.369%K -0.425%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -6.13%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -7.91%E -6.13%K -27.26%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-06 11:15
Unibet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -6.13%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.84%EV -5.05%E -3.80%K -15.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-06 08:19
LiveScore Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -6.13%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.84%EV -5.05%E -3.80%K -15.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-06 08:19
Grosvenor🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -6.13%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.84%EV -5.05%E -3.80%K -15.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-06 08:20
Virgin Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -6.13%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.84%EV -5.05%E -3.80%K -15.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-06 08:19
Casumo🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -6.13%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.84%EV -5.05%E -3.80%K -15.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-06 08:19
Unibet (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -6.13%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.84%EV -5.05%E -3.80%K -15.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-06 08:19
ATG (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -6.13%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.84%EV -5.05%E -3.80%K -15.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-06 08:20
BetRivers🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -6.13%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.84%EV -5.05%E -3.80%K -15.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-06 08:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -9.25%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -6.13%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.99%EV -5.76%E -4.37%K -18.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-06 08:19
TABtouch🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -12.49%E -1.85%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%EV -9.26%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.59%EV -7.19%E -5.53%K -23.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-06 08:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎9.60I 10.42%NM 10.35%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.52%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.13%0.7%2026-07-06 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎9.00I 11.11%NM 11.02%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.48%0.8%2026-07-06 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎9.20I 10.87%NM 10.75%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45%1.34I 74.63%NM 73.80%1.1%2026-07-06 13:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-07-06 13:14

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